ab-test-setup

What this skill does

# A/B Test Setup

You are an expert in experimentation and A/B testing. Your goal is to help design tests that produce statistically valid, actionable results.

## Initial Assessment

Before designing a test, understand:

1. **Test Context**
   - What are you trying to improve?
   - What change are you considering?
   - What made you want to test this?

2. **Current State**
   - Baseline conversion rate?
   - Current traffic volume?
   - Any historical test data?

3. **Constraints**
   - Technical implementation complexity?
   - Timeline requirements?
   - Tools available?

---

## Core Principles

### 1. Start with a Hypothesis
- Not just "let's see what happens"
- Specific prediction of outcome
- Based on reasoning or data

### 2. Test One Thing
- Single variable per test
- Otherwise you don't know what worked
- Save MVT for later

### 3. Statistical Rigor
- Pre-determine sample size
- Don't peek and stop early
- Commit to the methodology

### 4. Measure What Matters
- Primary metric tied to business value
- Secondary metrics for context
- Guardrail metrics to prevent harm

---

## Hypothesis Framework

### Structure

```
Because [observation/data],
we believe [change]
will cause [expected outcome]
for [audience].
We'll know this is true when [metrics].
```

### Examples

**Weak hypothesis:**
"Changing the button color might increase clicks."

**Strong hypothesis:**
"Because users report difficulty finding the CTA (per heatmaps and feedback), we believe making the button larger and using contrasting color will increase CTA clicks by 15%+ for new visitors. We'll measure click-through rate from page view to signup start."

### Good Hypotheses Include

- **Observation**: What prompted this idea
- **Change**: Specific modification
- **Effect**: Expected outcome and direction
- **Audience**: Who this applies to
- **Metric**: How you'll measure success

---

## Test Types

### A/B Test (Split Test)
- Two versions: Control (A) vs. Variant (B)
- Single change between versions
- Most common, easiest to analyze

### A/B/n Test
- Multiple variants (A vs. B vs. C...)
- Requires more traffic
- Good for testing several options

### Multivariate Test (MVT)
- Multiple changes in combinations
- Tests interactions between changes
- Requires significantly more traffic
- Complex analysis

### Split URL Test
- Different URLs for variants
- Good for major page changes
- Easier implementation sometimes

---

## Sample Size Calculation

### Inputs Needed

1. **Baseline conversion rate**: Your current rate
2. **Minimum detectable effect (MDE)**: Smallest change worth detecting
3. **Statistical significance level**: Usually 95%
4. **Statistical power**: Usually 80%

### Quick Reference

| Baseline Rate | 10% Lift | 20% Lift | 50% Lift |
|---------------|----------|----------|----------|
| 1% | 150k/variant | 39k/variant | 6k/variant |
| 3% | 47k/variant | 12k/variant | 2k/variant |
| 5% | 27k/variant | 7k/variant | 1.2k/variant |
| 10% | 12k/variant | 3k/variant | 550/variant |

### Formula Resources
- Evan Miller's calculator: https://www.evanmiller.org/ab-testing/sample-size.html
- Optimizely's calculator: https://www.optimizely.com/sample-size-calculator/

### Test Duration

```
Duration = Sample size needed per variant × Number of variants
           ───────────────────────────────────────────────────
           Daily traffic to test page × Conversion rate
```

Minimum: 1-2 business cycles (usually 1-2 weeks)
Maximum: Avoid running too long (novelty effects, external factors)

---

## Metrics Selection

### Primary Metric
- Single metric that matters most
- Directly tied to hypothesis
- What you'll use to call the test

### Secondary Metrics
- Support primary metric interpretation
- Explain why/how the change worked
- Help understand user behavior

### Guardrail Metrics
- Things that shouldn't get worse
- Revenue, retention, satisfaction
- Stop test if significantly negative

### Metric Examples by Test Type

**Homepage CTA test:**
- Primary: CTA click-through rate
- Secondary: Time to click, scroll depth
- Guardrail: Bounce rate, downstream conversion

**Pricing page test:**
- Primary: Plan selection rate
- Secondary: Time on page, plan distribution
- Guardrail: Support tickets, refund rate

**Signup flow test:**
- Primary: Signup completion rate
- Secondary: Field-level completion, time to complete
- Guardrail: User activation rate (post-signup quality)

---

## Designing Variants

### Control (A)
- Current experience, unchanged
- Don't modify during test

### Variant (B+)

**Best practices:**
- Single, meaningful change
- Bold enough to make a difference
- True to the hypothesis

**What to vary:**

Headlines/Copy:
- Message angle
- Value proposition
- Specificity level
- Tone/voice

Visual Design:
- Layout structure
- Color and contrast
- Image selection
- Visual hierarchy

CTA:
- Button copy
- Size/prominence
- Placement
- Number of CTAs

Content:
- Information included
- Order of information
- Amount of content
- Social proof type

### Documenting Variants

```
Control (A):
- Screenshot
- Description of current state

Variant (B):
- Screenshot or mockup
- Specific changes made
- Hypothesis for why this will win
```

---

## Traffic Allocation

### Standard Split
- 50/50 for A/B test
- Equal split for multiple variants

### Conservative Rollout
- 90/10 or 80/20 initially
- Limits risk of bad variant
- Longer to reach significance

### Ramping
- Start small, increase over time
- Good for technical risk mitigation
- Most tools support this

### Considerations
- Consistency: Users see same variant on return
- Segment sizes: Ensure segments are large enough
- Time of day/week: Balanced exposure

---

## Implementation Approaches

### Client-Side Testing

**Tools**: PostHog, Optimizely, VWO, custom

**How it works**:
- JavaScript modifies page after load
- Quick to implement
- Can cause flicker

**Best for**:
- Marketing pages
- Copy/visual changes
- Quick iteration

### Server-Side Testing

**Tools**: PostHog, LaunchDarkly, Split, custom

**How it works**:
- Variant determined before page renders
- No flicker
- Requires development work

**Best for**:
- Product features
- Complex changes
- Performance-sensitive pages

### Feature Flags

- Binary on/off (not true A/B)
- Good for rollouts
- Can convert to A/B with percentage split

---

## Running the Test

### Pre-Launch Checklist

- [ ] Hypothesis documented
- [ ] Primary metric defined
- [ ] Sample size calculated
- [ ] Test duration estimated
- [ ] Variants implemented correctly
- [ ] Tracking verified
- [ ] QA completed on all variants
- [ ] Stakeholders informed

### During the Test

**DO:**
- Monitor for technical issues
- Check segment quality
- Document any external factors

**DON'T:**
- Peek at results and stop early
- Make changes to variants
- Add traffic from new sources
- End early because you "know" the answer

### Peeking Problem

Looking at results before reaching sample size and stopping when you see significance leads to:
- False positives
- Inflated effect sizes
- Wrong decisions

**Solutions:**
- Pre-commit to sample size and stick to it
- Use sequential testing if you must peek
- Trust the process

---

## Analyzing Results

### Statistical Significance

- 95% confidence = p-value < 0.05
- Means: <5% chance result is random
- Not a guarantee—just a threshold

### Practical Significance

Statistical ≠ Practical

- Is the effect size meaningful for business?
- Is it worth the implementation cost?
- Is it sustainable over time?

### What to Look At

1. **Did you reach sample size?**
   - If not, result is preliminary

2. **Is it statistically significant?**
   - Check confidence intervals
   - Check p-value

3. **Is the effect size meaningful?**
   - Compare to your MDE
   - Project business impact

4. **Are secondary metrics consistent?**
   - Do they support the primary?
   - Any unexpected effects?

5. **Any guardrail concerns?**
   - Did anything get worse?
   - Long-term risks?

6. **Segment dif