budget-variance-analyzer

What this skill does

# Budget Variance Analyzer

## Business Case

### Problem Statement
Cost overruns surprise project teams:
- Late detection of budget issues
- No systematic variance analysis
- Difficult to forecast final costs
- Unclear root causes

### Solution
Systematic budget variance analysis that tracks costs against budget, identifies trends, and forecasts final project costs.

### Business Value
- **Early warning** - Detect overruns early
- **Forecasting** - Predict final costs
- **Accountability** - Track variance causes
- **Decision support** - Informed cost decisions

## Technical Implementation

```python
import pandas as pd
from datetime import datetime, date
from typing import Dict, Any, List, Optional, Tuple
from dataclasses import dataclass, field
from enum import Enum


class VarianceStatus(Enum):
    """Variance status."""
    UNDER_BUDGET = "under_budget"
    ON_BUDGET = "on_budget"
    OVER_BUDGET = "over_budget"
    CRITICAL = "critical"


class CostCategory(Enum):
    """Cost categories."""
    LABOR = "labor"
    MATERIAL = "material"
    EQUIPMENT = "equipment"
    SUBCONTRACTOR = "subcontractor"
    OVERHEAD = "overhead"
    CONTINGENCY = "contingency"
    OTHER = "other"


class VarianceCause(Enum):
    """Common variance causes."""
    SCOPE_CHANGE = "scope_change"
    QUANTITY_CHANGE = "quantity_change"
    PRICE_ESCALATION = "price_escalation"
    PRODUCTIVITY = "productivity"
    REWORK = "rework"
    DELAY = "delay"
    UNFORESEEN = "unforeseen"
    ESTIMATE_ERROR = "estimate_error"
    OTHER = "other"


@dataclass
class BudgetItem:
    """Single budget line item."""
    item_code: str
    description: str
    category: CostCategory
    original_budget: float
    current_budget: float  # After approved changes
    committed_cost: float  # Contracts, POs
    actual_cost: float     # Paid/invoiced
    forecast_cost: float   # Estimate at completion
    percent_complete: float
    notes: str = ""

    @property
    def variance_amount(self) -> float:
        """Budget variance (negative = over budget)."""
        return self.current_budget - self.forecast_cost

    @property
    def variance_percent(self) -> float:
        """Variance as percentage."""
        if self.current_budget == 0:
            return 0
        return (self.variance_amount / self.current_budget) * 100

    @property
    def status(self) -> VarianceStatus:
        """Determine variance status."""
        pct = self.variance_percent
        if pct > 5:
            return VarianceStatus.UNDER_BUDGET
        elif pct >= -5:
            return VarianceStatus.ON_BUDGET
        elif pct >= -15:
            return VarianceStatus.OVER_BUDGET
        else:
            return VarianceStatus.CRITICAL


@dataclass
class VarianceRecord:
    """Record of budget variance."""
    record_id: str
    item_code: str
    variance_amount: float
    cause: VarianceCause
    explanation: str
    recorded_date: date
    recorded_by: str
    approved: bool = False
    approval_date: Optional[date] = None


@dataclass
class ForecastScenario:
    """Cost forecast scenario."""
    name: str
    description: str
    adjustments: Dict[str, float]  # item_code: adjustment amount
    total_forecast: float
    variance_from_budget: float


class BudgetVarianceAnalyzer:
    """Analyze budget vs actual cost variances."""

    VARIANCE_THRESHOLD_WARNING = -0.05  # -5%
    VARIANCE_THRESHOLD_CRITICAL = -0.15  # -15%

    def __init__(self, project_name: str, original_budget: float, currency: str = "USD"):
        self.project_name = project_name
        self.original_budget = original_budget
        self.currency = currency
        self.items: Dict[str, BudgetItem] = {}
        self.variance_records: List[VarianceRecord] = []
        self.history: List[Dict[str, Any]] = []

    def add_budget_item(self,
                       item_code: str,
                       description: str,
                       category: CostCategory,
                       budget: float,
                       committed: float = 0,
                       actual: float = 0,
                       percent_complete: float = 0) -> BudgetItem:
        """Add budget line item."""
        forecast = max(committed, actual / percent_complete * 100) if percent_complete > 0 else budget

        item = BudgetItem(
            item_code=item_code,
            description=description,
            category=category,
            original_budget=budget,
            current_budget=budget,
            committed_cost=committed,
            actual_cost=actual,
            forecast_cost=forecast,
            percent_complete=percent_complete
        )

        self.items[item_code] = item
        return item

    def update_costs(self, item_code: str,
                    committed: float = None,
                    actual: float = None,
                    percent_complete: float = None,
                    forecast: float = None):
        """Update item costs."""
        if item_code not in self.items:
            raise ValueError(f"Item {item_code} not found")

        item = self.items[item_code]

        if committed is not None:
            item.committed_cost = committed
        if actual is not None:
            item.actual_cost = actual
        if percent_complete is not None:
            item.percent_complete = percent_complete
        if forecast is not None:
            item.forecast_cost = forecast
        else:
            # Auto-calculate forecast
            if item.percent_complete > 0:
                item.forecast_cost = item.actual_cost / item.percent_complete * 100
            else:
                item.forecast_cost = max(item.committed_cost, item.current_budget)

        self._record_history()

    def adjust_budget(self, item_code: str, amount: float, reason: str):
        """Adjust current budget (approved change)."""
        if item_code not in self.items:
            raise ValueError(f"Item {item_code} not found")

        self.items[item_code].current_budget += amount
        self.items[item_code].notes += f"\nBudget adjusted by {amount}: {reason}"

    def record_variance(self,
                       item_code: str,
                       cause: VarianceCause,
                       explanation: str,
                       recorded_by: str) -> VarianceRecord:
        """Record variance explanation."""
        item = self.items.get(item_code)
        if not item:
            raise ValueError(f"Item {item_code} not found")

        record_id = f"VAR-{len(self.variance_records) + 1:04d}"

        record = VarianceRecord(
            record_id=record_id,
            item_code=item_code,
            variance_amount=item.variance_amount,
            cause=cause,
            explanation=explanation,
            recorded_date=date.today(),
            recorded_by=recorded_by
        )

        self.variance_records.append(record)
        return record

    def _record_history(self):
        """Record current state to history."""
        snapshot = {
            'date': date.today().isoformat(),
            'total_budget': sum(i.current_budget for i in self.items.values()),
            'total_committed': sum(i.committed_cost for i in self.items.values()),
            'total_actual': sum(i.actual_cost for i in self.items.values()),
            'total_forecast': sum(i.forecast_cost for i in self.items.values())
        }
        self.history.append(snapshot)

    def calculate_summary(self) -> Dict[str, Any]:
        """Calculate overall budget summary."""
        total_budget = sum(i.current_budget for i in self.items.values())
        total_committed = sum(i.committed_cost for i in self.items.values())
        total_actual = sum(i.actual_cost for i in self.items.values())
        total_forecast = sum(i.forecast_cost for i in self.items.values())

        variance = total_budget - total_forecast
        variance_pct = (variance / total_budget * 100) if total_budget > 0 else 0

        # By category
        by_category = {}