capital-allocation

What this skill does

# Capital Allocation — Integrated Financial Plan

Synthesize pension evaluation, real estate readiness, and retirement projection into an integrated capital allocation recommendation. This skill is an **orchestrator** — it reads reports generated by other skills and combines their findings into a unified decision framework. It does not duplicate calculations already performed by `evaluate-pension`, `real-estate-readiness`, or `retirement-readiness`.

Load `references/allocation-framework.md` for the decision matrix structure, scoring criteria, and interaction effects between pension and property decisions.

Load `${CLAUDE_PLUGIN_ROOT}/skills/financial-analysis/references/german-financial-system.md` for tax parameters and regulatory context.

## Step 1: Check Prerequisites

Look for existing analysis reports in `finance/reports/`. Read each that exists:

| Report | Generated by | Required |
|--------|-------------|----------|
| `finance/reports/pension-evaluation-*.md` | `evaluate-pension` skill | Yes |
| `finance/reports/real-estate-readiness-*.md` | `real-estate-readiness` skill | Yes |
| `finance/reports/retirement-readiness-*.md` | `retirement-readiness` skill | Recommended |
| `finance/reports/tax-check-*.md` | `tax-check` skill | Optional |

For each report found, check the date in the YAML frontmatter. If older than 3 months, warn the user that the data may be stale and recommend re-running the relevant skill.

**If required reports are missing**: Stop and inform the user which commands to run first:
- Missing pension evaluation → "Run `/evaluate-pension` first to analyze your pension products."
- Missing real estate readiness → "Run `/real-estate-check` first to assess your property purchase readiness."
- Missing retirement readiness → "Run `/evaluate-pension retirement readiness` for a three-pillar projection. This is recommended but not required — the analysis will proceed without it, using a simplified retirement estimate."

Do not proceed without at least the pension evaluation and real estate readiness reports.

## Step 2: Extract Key Financial Parameters

Read all data files to build a unified financial snapshot:

From `finance/data/bank-accounts.md`:
- Total liquid savings (Girokonto + Tagesgeld)
- Total investments (Depot value)
- Emergency reserve (earmarked amount)
- Deployable capital = Total liquid - Emergency reserve - Locked funds

From `finance/data/employment.md`:
- Net monthly salary
- Marginal tax rate (derive from Steuerklasse and gross salary)
- Employer bAV contribution

From `finance/data/monthly-budget.md`:
- Monthly savings capacity = Total income - Total expenses (before current pension/investment contributions)
- Current pension contribution stream (monthly)
- Current ETF/investment contribution stream (monthly)

From `finance/data/pension.md`:
- Total private pension contributions (monthly)
- Riester contract value (if exists — needed for Wohn-Riester scenario)

From `finance/data/property-goals.md`:
- Target property price (or range)
- Property type (apartment/house)
- Timeline preference

Compile into a summary table at the top of the analysis.

## Step 3: Extract Key Findings from Reports

From the pension evaluation report, extract:
- Current pension plan assessment (keep / switch / make paid-up)
- Cost drag (annual fee percentage and total EUR lost)
- Best alternative identified (and its projected advantage)

From the real estate readiness report, extract:
- Readiness score (Ready / Almost Ready / Not Yet Ready)
- Maximum affordable property price
- Required Eigenkapital (down payment + Kaufnebenkosten)
- Current Eigenkapital gap (if any)
- Monthly mortgage payment at target price

From the retirement readiness report (if available), extract:
- Pension gap (Versorgungslücke) in EUR/month
- GRV projected monthly payout
- Total projected retirement income across all pillars
- Wohn-Riester trade-off result (if modeled)

## Step 4: Model Four Scenarios

For each scenario, project the financial position at 10, 20, and 30 years (or until retirement, whichever comes first). Use the assumptions from the prerequisite reports.

### Scenario A — Pension Priority

Maximize tax-advantaged pension contributions. Delay property purchase.

- Increase Rürup contributions to the annual deduction ceiling (currently ~EUR 27,566 single). Calculate annual tax savings at the marginal rate.
- Optimize Riester: ensure full Zulage qualification (minimum Eigenbeitrag = 4% of Vorjahres-Brutto - Zulagen).
- Increase bAV Entgeltumwandlung if employer matching exists.
- Switch high-cost pension products to low-cost alternatives (per pension evaluation findings).
- Redirect all remaining savings to ETF Sparplan for long-term growth.
- Property purchase deferred indefinitely — continue renting.
- Calculate: net monthly outflow change, projected net worth at 67, projected monthly retirement income.

### Scenario B — Property Priority

Redirect discretionary savings toward property equity. Consider making private pension paid-up.

- Make high-cost private pension paid-up (Beitragsfreistellung) per pension evaluation recommendation.
- Maintain only minimum pension contributions (GRV mandatory, Riester minimum for Zulage if cost-effective).
- Redirect freed-up monthly amount to down payment savings.
- Calculate timeline to reach required Eigenkapital: `months = (Required equity - Current deployable capital) / Monthly redirected savings`.
- Model the property purchase: mortgage amount, monthly Annuität, total interest over loan term.
- After purchase: monthly outflow shifts from rent to mortgage + running costs.
- Calculate: timeline to purchase, projected net worth at 67 (property equity + reduced pension), projected monthly retirement income (lower pension but no rent expense).

### Scenario C — Balanced

Maintain minimum pension contributions for tax benefit. Allocate remaining savings to property equity.

- Continue Rürup at a moderate level (enough for meaningful tax deduction, e.g., EUR 500/month).
- Continue Riester minimum contribution for Zulage.
- Switch high-cost pension to low-cost alternative (per evaluation).
- Allocate remaining monthly savings to property equity accumulation.
- Calculate the longer timeline for both goals: later property purchase than Scenario B, better pension than Scenario B, but not as strong as Scenario A on either axis.
- Calculate: projected net worth at 67 (moderate pension + property equity), timeline to purchase, monthly retirement income.

### Scenario D — Wohn-Riester Hybrid

Use Riester capital for property purchase. Continue Rürup for tax deduction.

- Apply Riester contract value to property purchase (Altersvorsorge-Eigenheimbetrag).
- This reduces the required Eigenkapital from savings → earlier purchase possible.
- Continue Rürup contributions at optimal level for tax deduction.
- Model the Wohnförderkonto tax liability at retirement.
- Calculate: accelerated purchase timeline, mortgage reduction from Riester capital, interest savings, net retirement income after Wohnförderkonto taxation.
- Only model this scenario if the user has a Riester contract. If no Riester exists, skip this scenario and note that it is not applicable.

## Step 5: Scoring Matrix

Score each scenario on 6 criteria. Use a 1–5 scale (5 = best).

| Criterion | Weight | Description |
|-----------|--------|-------------|
| Net worth at 67 | 25% | Total projected assets (pension capital + property equity + liquid savings) in real EUR |
| Monthly retirement income | 25% | Projected monthly income from all sources, net of tax |
| Liquidity and flexibility | 15% | Access to capital before retirement; ability to adjust course |
| Tax efficiency | 15% | Total tax savings during accumulation phase (Rürup deductions, Riester Zulagen, bAV savings) |
| Risk concentration | 10% | Diversification: heavy property exposure = concentrated risk; diversified pension + ETF = lower concentration |
| Timeline to property | 10% | Years until property