evaluate-pension

What this skill does

# Evaluate Pension

Analyze the current private pension plan for cost-efficiency, projected returns, and compare against alternatives available in Germany. Produce a comprehensive evaluation report that enables informed decision-making about pension optimization.

Load `${CLAUDE_PLUGIN_ROOT}/skills/financial-analysis/references/german-financial-system.md` for detailed German tax parameters, pension system overview, and regulatory context.

## Step 1: Gather Pension and Employment Data

Read the pension data file at `finance/data/pension.md`. Extract all available details:

- **Provider** (e.g., Allianz, ERGO, Deutsche Rentenversicherung Bund)
- **Plan type**: Riester-Rente, Rürup-Rente (Basisrente), private Rentenversicherung, fondsgebundene Rentenversicherung, betriebliche Altersvorsorge (bAV)
- **Monthly/annual contribution amount**
- **Fee structure**: Abschlusskosten (acquisition costs), Verwaltungskosten (administration fees), Fondskosten / TER (total expense ratio for fund-linked products), Wechselkosten (switching costs)
- **Contract start date and remaining term**
- **Current contract value** (Rückkaufswert / surrender value)
- **Guaranteed capital** (Garantiekapital) and guaranteed interest rate (Garantiezins)
- **Projected payout**: provider's optimistic and conservative scenarios
- **Fund allocation** (for fondsgebundene products): which funds, what allocation

Read the employment data file at `finance/data/employment.md`. Extract:

- **Gross annual salary** (Bruttojahresgehalt) for contribution ceiling calculations
- **Tax bracket** (Steuerklasse) and marginal tax rate
- **Employer pension contributions** (Arbeitgeberzuschuss) if applicable
- **Employment status** (angestellt, selbstständig, verbeamtet) as this affects eligibility for Riester/Rürup

If either file is missing or incomplete, note the gaps explicitly in the report and proceed with available data. Flag missing data points as assumptions.

## Step 2: Research Current Market Benchmarks

Perform web searches to gather up-to-date comparison data:

1. Search for "beste Riester-Rente Vergleich aktuell" or the equivalent for the identified plan type to find current top-rated comparable products and their fee structures.
2. Search for "MSCI World ETF 10-Jahres-Rendite" to obtain the current 10-year annualized return of broad market index ETFs.
3. Search for "günstigste ETF Rentenversicherung Deutschland" (e.g., myPension, fairr, ETF Rürup) to find low-cost pension wrapper alternatives.
4. Search for "Scalable Capital Trade Republic Sparplan Kosten" to get current broker fee structures for self-directed ETF investing.
5. Search for "Sparerpauschbetrag aktuell" and "Kapitalertragsteuer Deutschland" to confirm current tax-free allowances and capital gains tax rates.

Record all sources with URLs for citation in the report.

## Step 3: Calculate Total Cost Drag

Compute the cumulative impact of fees on the pension plan's performance over the remaining investment horizon:

1. Determine remaining years to retirement: assume retirement age 67 unless the pension data specifies otherwise. Calculate `years_remaining = 67 - current_age`.
2. Calculate **annual cost ratio**: sum all recurring fees (Verwaltungskosten + TER + any percentage-based charges) as a single annual percentage of assets.
3. Calculate **upfront cost impact**: determine what portion of Abschlusskosten has already been paid (typically spread over first 5 years via Zillmerung) and what remains.
4. Model the **cost drag over the full period**:
   - Project the portfolio value WITH current fees applied annually.
   - Project the portfolio value WITHOUT fees (gross return only).
   - The difference is the total cost drag in euros.
5. Express the cost drag as: total euros lost to fees, percentage of final portfolio value sacrificed, and equivalent monthly pension reduction.

Use a moderate 7% gross return assumption for the base case. Show sensitivity at 5% and 9%.

## Step 4: Compare Against Alternatives

Build a projection comparison across three scenarios. For each scenario, model monthly contributions equal to the current pension contribution amount.

### Scenario A: Current Pension Plan
Use the provider's projected returns. Also calculate an independent projection using realistic return assumptions minus the plan's actual fee load.

### Scenario B: Low-Cost Pension Wrapper
Model a low-cost ETF-based pension product (e.g., ETF Rürup via myPension or fairr, or Nettopolice Rentenversicherung). Typical fee structure: 0.3%-0.6% total annual cost including ETF TER. Apply the same gross return assumptions.

### Scenario C: Self-Directed ETF Portfolio
Model a DIY approach via a German neo-broker:
- Assume a globally diversified ETF portfolio (e.g., MSCI World or FTSE All-World).
- TER: 0.07%-0.22% annually.
- No additional wrapper fees.
- Include transaction costs if applicable (most Sparpläne are free at Trade Republic/Scalable Capital).

For all three scenarios, calculate and display:
- Portfolio value at 10, 20, and 30 years (or remaining years to retirement, whichever is less).
- Total contributions paid over each period.
- Total fees paid over each period.
- Projected monthly pension payout (for insurance products, use a standard annuity factor; for ETF portfolios, use the 4% safe withdrawal rate as a reference).

## Step 5: Evaluate Tax Treatment

Analyze the tax implications for each scenario. For detailed calculation methodology — Riester-Rente Grundzulage/Kinderzulage math, Rürup-Rente deductibility percentages, Private Rentenversicherung Ertragsanteilbesteuerung rates, and ETF Teilfreistellung calculations — load `references/pension-tax-treatment.md`.

Key tax characteristics per scenario:
- **Riester-Rente**: State subsidies (Grundzulage + Kinderzulage) plus Sonderausgabenabzug up to 2,100 EUR/year; fully taxed at personal rate in retirement.
- **Rürup-Rente**: ~100% deductible contributions (up to ~27,566 EUR single in 2025); taxable payout portion rises to 100% by 2058.
- **Private Rentenversicherung**: No contribution deductibility; favourable Ertragsanteilbesteuerung in payout phase (e.g., 18% taxable share at age 67).
- **Self-Directed ETF**: Vorabpauschale during accumulation; 26.375% Kapitalertragsteuer on withdrawal with 30% Teilfreistellung for equity ETFs (effective ~18.46%).

Summarize the tax comparison in a table showing effective tax rates for each option during accumulation and payout phases.

## Step 6: Assess Switching Feasibility

Evaluate whether changing the current pension arrangement is practical:

1. **Surrender value** (Rückkaufswert): Compare against total contributions paid. If the surrender value is significantly below contributions, calculate the realized loss from cancellation.
2. **Anbieterwechsel** (provider switch): Determine if the plan type allows transferring to a different provider without cancellation (Riester plans allow this; most private Rentenversicherungen do not).
3. **Beitragsfreistellung** (paid-up status): Evaluate making the plan paid-up (stopping contributions) while keeping the existing contract value invested. Compare the outcome of redirecting future contributions to a lower-cost alternative versus continuing the current plan.
4. **Penalty clauses**: Identify any early termination penalties, Stornoabzug, or other contractual costs.
5. **Timing considerations**: Note if the contract is past the Zillmerung period (typically 5 years), as cancellation becomes less costly after upfront fees have been fully charged.

Provide a clear recommendation: cancel, switch provider, make paid-up and redirect, or continue.

## Step 7: Generate the Evaluation Report

Create the output file at `finance/reports/pension-evaluation-YYYY-MM.md`, replacing YYYY-MM with the current year and month. Structure the report as follows:

```markdown
---
title: "Pension Plan Evaluation"
date: YYYY-MM-DD
type: pension-evaluation
status: draft
pension-provider: "[provider name]"
pension-type: "[plan type]