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farness

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Use when the user wants advice or a decision recommendation rather than direct implementation, especially for prompts like "should I", "should we", "which is better", "is it worth it", or "what would you do" about architecture, product, hiring, strategy, or career choices. Prefer the local farness MCP server when available and structure the answer around KPI, option expansion, reference class, disconfirming evidence, numeric forecasts, and a review date.

AI Agents

What this skill does


# Farness

Use this skill to turn vague decisions into forecastable choices.

Prefer the local `farness` MCP server when it is connected.

## Workflow

1. If the decision is not stored yet, call `create_decision`.
2. Use the `analyze_decision` or `review_decision` MCP prompts for the canonical structure.
3. Make the analysis explicit:
   - KPI definition
   - KPI resolution metadata
   - option expansion
   - reference class / base rate
   - mechanism or decomposition
   - disconfirming evidence
   - numeric forecasts with 80% confidence intervals
   - a compact forecast summary table
   - review date
4. Persist the result with `save_analysis`.
   - `kpis` must be a list of objects shaped like:
     `{"name": "...", "description": "...", "unit": "%|$|days|...", "target": 80, "weight": 1.0, "outcome_type": "binary|count|continuous|percent|currency|score", "resolution_date": "2026-06-30", "resolution_rule": "...", "data_source": "..."}`
   - `options` must be a list of objects shaped like:
     `{"name": "...", "description": "...", "forecasts": [{"kpi_name": "...", "point_estimate": 75, "ci_low": 60, "ci_high": 86, "confidence_level": 0.8, "reasoning": "...", "assumptions": ["..."], "base_rate": 68, "base_rate_source": "...", "inside_view_adjustment": "..."}]}`
   - Do not pass KPI or option names as bare strings.
5. If outcomes are known, call `score_decision`.
6. If the user wants to externalize a forecast into a prediction market, draft it first:
   - Use `farness forecast-draft <decision-id> --output forecast-pack.json` for stored decisions.
   - Use `farness forecast-draft "<forecast question>" --initial-prob <1-99> --resolution-date YYYY-MM-DD --output forecast-pack.json` for standalone policy questions.
   - Treat forecast drafts as review artifacts only; do not publish questions or place bets unless the user explicitly asks.

## Working Rules

- Do not give a vague recommendation before the KPIs and forecasts are explicit.
- In the first answer, show the forecast results without waiting to be asked again. Include a compact table or bullet summary of each option on the decisive KPIs.
- After the forecast summary, explain how those forecast differences drive the recommendation or prioritization.
- Prefer KPIs that can actually resolve later; avoid labels like `fit` or `quality` unless the resolution rule makes them numeric and scoreable.
- Keep the option set broader than the user's initial framing.
- Treat disconfirming evidence as first-class, not cleanup.
- Use the MCP server for persistence instead of leaving the analysis only in chat.

## Setup

If the `farness` MCP server is not connected, add it with:

```bash
farness setup claude
```
Files: 1
Size: 3.1 KB
Complexity: 10/100
Category: AI Agents

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