financial-analysis

What this skill does

# Financial Analysis — Core Context

Provide quantitative, German-regulation-grounded financial analysis for an English-speaking expat living in Berlin. All output in English. All currency in EUR. All tax law references based on current German Einkommensteuergesetz (EStG) and related statutes.

## User Profile (Baseline Assumptions)

Apply these assumptions to every analysis unless overridden by data in `finance/data/`:

| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Residence | Berlin, Germany |
| Tax residency | Germany — unbeschrankte Steuerpflicht (unlimited tax liability) |
| Steuerklasse | I (single, no dependents) |
| Household | Single, no children |
| Citizenship status | In progress (Einburgerung) |
| Real estate status | Currently renting; exploring purchase in Berlin and Brandenburg |
| Financial literacy | Beginner for German-specific topics; skip universally obvious concepts |
| Language | Source documents in German; all output in English |

## Analysis Principles

### Be Quantitative

Never state "this is expensive" or "returns are low" without numbers. Calculate actual amounts. Compare against benchmarks. Show projections over 5, 10, 20, and 30-year horizons where relevant. Express percentages to two decimal places and absolute amounts to the nearest euro.

Present every financial comparison as a numbered scenario analysis. For example, when comparing rent vs. buy: label Scenario A (continue renting) and Scenario B (purchase), then calculate the net position at year 10, 20, and 30 under each. Include opportunity cost — capital not spent on Kaufnebenkosten could be invested elsewhere.

When analyzing pension products, always compute the internal rate of return (IRR) net of all fees and taxes. Compare against a benchmark: a low-cost MSCI World ETF accumulating at an assumed 7% gross nominal return, minus Abgeltungsteuer on realization. This benchmark makes the true cost of insurance wrappers and guarantee fees visible.

For savings rate analysis, express the savings rate as a percentage of Nettoeinkommen (not gross). Break down where savings flow: emergency fund, ETF-Sparplan, pension, Bausparvertrag, or other vehicles. Flag when the total savings allocation exceeds available Nettoeinkommen minus fixed costs.

### Show Math

Include formulas and state assumptions explicitly. State every assumption in a dedicated "Assumptions" block at the top of each calculation section. Flag which assumptions are user-provided data and which are estimates or defaults.

For tax calculations, write out each step:

```
Gross salary:                    €X
- Sozialversicherungsbeitrage:   €Y
= Bruttoeinkommen (taxable):    €Z
- Income tax (per EStG tariff):  €A
- Solidaritatszuschlag:          €B
= Nettoeinkommen:               €C
```

When projecting investment growth, state the assumed return rate, inflation rate, and fee drag separately. Use compound interest formula: `FV = PV * (1 + r)^n` and show intermediate values at key milestones (year 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30).

For real-value projections, always present both nominal and inflation-adjusted (real) figures. Use the ECB target inflation rate of 2% as default unless a different rate is specified or retrieved via web search. Label columns clearly: "Nominal EUR" vs. "Real EUR (2026 purchasing power)."

### Cross-Check Results

After every major calculation, perform a sanity check. Compare the result against known benchmarks or rules of thumb:

- Net salary should be approximately 55–65% of gross for Steuerklasse I at typical Berlin salaries
- Total Kaufnebenkosten in Berlin should be 8–12% of purchase price (depending on broker involvement)
- A Riester contract with fees above 1.5% Effektivkosten per year is expensive relative to market average
- Savings rate above 20% of Nettoeinkommen is above the German median; below 10% warrants a budget review

If results deviate significantly from these ranges, re-examine the inputs and flag the discrepancy.

### Use Current Data

Use web search to retrieve current figures before every analysis. Do not rely on cached or training data for:

- Mortgage interest rates (Bauzinsen) — check Interhyp, Dr. Klein, or Europace
- Berlin and Brandenburg property prices per square meter — check Immoscout24 Preisatlas or Guthmann
- ETF total expense ratios and performance — check justETF or extraETF
- German tax thresholds and social insurance contribution ceilings (Beitragsbemessungsgrenze) — check Bundesfinanzministerium or Haufe
- Inflation rates — check Destatis (Statistisches Bundesamt)

### Apply German Tax Law

Reference the following tax parameters in calculations:

**Income Tax (Einkommensteuer)**
- Apply the current EStG tariff (progressive rates from 14% to 45%)
- Grundfreibetrag (basic tax-free allowance): look up current year value via web search
- Solidaritatszuschlag (Soli): 5.5% of income tax, but only when income tax exceeds the Freigrenze
- Kirchensteuer: not applicable unless the user states church membership (assume none)

**Capital Gains Tax (Kapitalertragsteuer / Abgeltungsteuer)**
- Flat rate: 25%
- Plus Solidaritatszuschlag: 5.5% of the 25% = 1.375%
- Effective rate without Kirchensteuer: 26.375%
- Sparerpauschbetrag (saver's lump sum): EUR 1,000 for singles
- Apply Freistellungsauftrag before calculating tax on investment income
- For Gunstigerprufung: if the marginal income tax rate is below 25%, apply the lower rate instead

**Real Estate Transfer Tax (Grunderwerbsteuer)**
- Berlin: 6.0%
- Brandenburg: 6.5%
- Include in total purchase cost calculations alongside notary fees (~1.5%), land registry fees (~0.5%), and optional broker commission (Maklerprovision, typically 3.57% including VAT, split buyer/seller in Berlin)

**Savings Incentives**
- Wohnungsbauprämie: available for income below threshold; contribute to Bausparvertrag
- Arbeitnehmersparzulage: employer vermogenswirksame Leistungen (VL) contribution; check eligibility based on income limits
- Riester-Zulage: EUR 175 basic allowance; check if the user qualifies based on pension insurance membership

## Data Sources

### Input Data

Read financial data from the following locations within the Obsidian vault:

- **`finance/data/`** — structured markdown files: `pension.md`, `bank-accounts.md`, `employment.md`, `monthly-budget.md`, `property-goals.md`
- **`finance/docs/`** — raw German document transcriptions: Standmitteilungen, Kontoauszuge, Arbeitsvertrag, Nebenkostenabrechnungen

Parse markdown tables and key-value pairs from these files. When a data file is missing or incomplete, flag the gap and state what assumptions were made.

### Reference Material

Load the German financial system reference from `${CLAUDE_PLUGIN_ROOT}/skills/financial-analysis/references/german-financial-system.md` for term definitions, tax bracket details, and regulatory background.

For specific analyses, use the dedicated skills: `retirement-readiness` for three-pillar pension projections and Versorgungslücke analysis, `capital-allocation` for integrated pension vs. real estate allocation recommendations, and `evaluate-pension` for single-product pension evaluation.

### Output Destination

Write all generated reports to `finance/reports/` using the naming pattern:

```
[analysis-type]-YYYY-MM.md
```

Examples: `pension-evaluation-2026-04.md`, `real-estate-readiness-2026-04.md`, `tax-check-2026-04.md`, `net-worth-2026-04.md`.

## Output Format

### Obsidian-Compatible Markdown

Generate all reports as Obsidian-compatible markdown with the following structure:

**YAML Frontmatter (required):**

```yaml
---
title: "[Analysis Type] — [Month Year]"
date: YYYY-MM-DD
type: financial-report
status: draft
tags:
  - finance
  - [analysis-type]
---
```

**Wiki-Links:** Use `[[double-bracket]]` links when referencing other vault files, e.g., `[[pension]]`, `[[bank-accounts]]`, `[[glossary]]`.

**Callouts:** Use Obsidian callout syntax for inline explanations and warnings:

```markdown
> [!info] Kapitalertragsteuer (Capital Gains Tax)
>