historical-market-cap

What this skill does

# Historical Market Cap

Retrieve historical market capitalization data over a specified date range using the Octagon MCP server.

## Prerequisites

Ensure Octagon MCP is configured in your AI agent (Cursor, Claude Desktop, Windsurf, etc.). See [references/mcp-setup.md](references/mcp-setup.md) for installation instructions.

## Workflow

### 1. Identify Parameters

Determine your query parameters:
- **Ticker**: Stock symbol (e.g., AAPL, MSFT)
- **Start Date**: Beginning of date range
- **End Date**: End of date range
- **Limit** (optional): Maximum records to return

### 2. Execute Query via Octagon MCP

Use the `octagon-agent` tool with a natural language prompt:

```
Retrieve historical market capitalization data for <TICKER> from <START_DATE> to <END_DATE>, limited to <LIMIT> records.
```

**MCP Call Format:**

```json
{
  "server": "octagon-mcp",
  "toolName": "octagon-agent",
  "arguments": {
    "prompt": "Retrieve historical market capitalization data for AAPL from 2025-01-01 to 2025-04-30, limited to 1000 records."
  }
}
```

### 3. Expected Output

The agent returns daily market cap values:

| Date | Market Cap (USD) |
|------|------------------|
| 2025-04-30 | $3.17 trillion |
| 2025-02-25 | $3.70 trillion (High) |
| 2025-04-08 | $2.57 trillion (Low) |
| ... | ... |

**Summary Statistics**:
- Highest: $3.70 trillion on 2025-02-25
- Lowest: $2.57 trillion on 2025-04-08
- Most Recent: $3.17 trillion on 2025-04-30

**Data Sources**: octagon-stock-data-agent

### 4. Interpret Results

See [references/interpreting-results.md](references/interpreting-results.md) for guidance on:
- Analyzing market cap trends
- Calculating growth rates
- Identifying peaks and troughs
- Understanding volatility

## Example Queries

**Standard Date Range:**
```
Retrieve historical market capitalization data for AAPL from 2025-01-01 to 2025-04-30, limited to 1000 records.
```

**Full Year:**
```
Get historical market cap for MSFT for the entire year 2024.
```

**Quarterly Analysis:**
```
Show TSLA's market cap history for Q1 2025.
```

**Multi-Year Trend:**
```
Retrieve market cap history for NVDA from 2020 to 2025.
```

**Peak Analysis:**
```
When did AAPL reach its highest market cap in 2024?
```

## Understanding Market Cap History

### What the Data Shows

| Metric | Description |
|--------|-------------|
| Daily Market Cap | End-of-day value |
| Date Series | Trading days only |
| Calculation | Price × Shares Outstanding |
| Adjustments | Split-adjusted shares |

### Key Statistics

| Statistic | Purpose |
|-----------|---------|
| Maximum | Peak valuation |
| Minimum | Trough valuation |
| Average | Typical valuation |
| Range | Volatility indicator |

## Trend Analysis

### Calculating Changes

| Metric | Formula |
|--------|---------|
| Absolute Change | End Cap - Start Cap |
| Percentage Change | (End - Start) / Start × 100% |
| CAGR | (End/Start)^(1/years) - 1 |

### Example Calculation

From the AAPL data:
- High: $3.70T (Feb 25)
- Low: $2.57T (Apr 8)
- Range: $1.13T
- Peak-to-Trough: -30.5%

### Trend Patterns

| Pattern | Characteristics |
|---------|-----------------|
| Uptrend | Higher highs, higher lows |
| Downtrend | Lower highs, lower lows |
| Consolidation | Range-bound |
| V-Recovery | Sharp decline, sharp recovery |
| Rounded Top | Gradual peak formation |

## Period Analysis

### Daily Analysis

| Use Case | Focus |
|----------|-------|
| Trading | Short-term moves |
| Volatility | Day-to-day changes |
| Events | Catalyst impact |

### Weekly/Monthly Analysis

| Use Case | Focus |
|----------|-------|
| Trends | Direction over time |
| Comparisons | Period-over-period |
| Smoothing | Reduce noise |

### Annual Analysis

| Use Case | Focus |
|----------|-------|
| Growth | Long-term trajectory |
| Milestones | Major achievements |
| CAGR | Compound growth |

## Volatility Assessment

### Measuring Volatility

| Metric | Calculation |
|--------|-------------|
| Range | High - Low |
| Range % | (High - Low) / Average |
| Daily Moves | Average daily change |
| Standard Deviation | Price dispersion |

### Volatility Interpretation

| Range % | Volatility |
|---------|------------|
| <20% | Low |
| 20-40% | Moderate |
| 40-60% | High |
| >60% | Very High |

### Example

From AAPL data:
- High: $3.70T
- Low: $2.57T
- Range: $1.13T
- Range %: ~35%
- **Interpretation**: Moderate-high volatility

## Peak and Trough Analysis

### Identifying Peaks

| Signal | Description |
|--------|-------------|
| All-time High | Highest ever |
| Period High | Highest in range |
| Local Peak | Temporary high |

### Identifying Troughs

| Signal | Description |
|--------|-------------|
| All-time Low | Lowest ever |
| Period Low | Lowest in range |
| Local Trough | Temporary low |

### Peak-to-Trough Metrics

| Metric | Purpose |
|--------|---------|
| Drawdown % | Decline from peak |
| Recovery Time | Days to recover |
| Drawdown Duration | Peak to trough time |

## Size Classification Over Time

### Tracking Category Changes

| If Market Cap... | Classification |
|------------------|----------------|
| >$200B | Mega-cap |
| $10B-$200B | Large-cap |
| $2B-$10B | Mid-cap |
| $300M-$2B | Small-cap |

### Milestone Analysis

| Milestone | Significance |
|-----------|--------------|
| First $1T | Historic achievement |
| Crossed $2T | Elite status |
| Crossed $3T | World's most valuable |

## Comparative Analysis

### Same Company Over Time

| Comparison | Purpose |
|------------|---------|
| YoY | Year-over-year growth |
| QoQ | Quarterly momentum |
| MoM | Monthly trends |

### Multiple Companies

| Comparison | Purpose |
|------------|---------|
| Relative Size | Market position |
| Relative Growth | Performance comparison |
| Correlation | Movement similarity |

## Common Use Cases

### Trend Analysis
```
How has AAPL's market cap changed over the past year?
```

### Peak Finding
```
When did TSLA reach its highest market cap?
```

### Drawdown Analysis
```
What was NVDA's biggest decline from peak in 2024?
```

### Milestone Tracking
```
When did MSFT first cross $3 trillion market cap?
```

### Comparison
```
Compare the market cap growth of AAPL and MSFT over 5 years.
```

## Analysis Tips

1. **Use appropriate timeframes**: Match analysis to investment horizon.

2. **Identify catalysts**: Major moves often have drivers.

3. **Consider splits**: Ensure data is split-adjusted.

4. **Watch for milestones**: Round numbers are psychologically important.

5. **Calculate drawdowns**: Understand downside risk.

6. **Compare to benchmarks**: Market cap vs. index performance.

## Integration with Other Skills

| Skill | Combined Use |
|-------|--------------|
| company-market-cap | Current vs. historical |
| stock-performance | Price driving cap changes |
| income-statement | Earnings supporting cap |
| financial-metrics-analysis | Valuation evolution |