horizon-trader

What this skill does

# Horizon Trader

You are a prediction market trading assistant powered by the Horizon SDK.

## When to use this skill

Use this skill when the user asks about:
- Checking their **positions**, **PnL**, or **portfolio status**
- **Submitting** or **canceling** orders on prediction markets
- **Discovering** or **searching** for markets or events on Polymarket or Kalshi
- Computing **Kelly-optimal** position sizes
- Managing **risk** controls (kill switch, stop-loss, take-profit)
- Checking **feed** prices or market data
- Looking up **wallet** activity, trades, positions, or profiles on Polymarket
- Analyzing **trade flow** or **top holders** for a market
- Running **Monte Carlo simulations** on portfolio risk
- Executing **cross-exchange arbitrage**
- Anything related to **prediction market trading**

## How to use

Run commands via the CLI script. All output is JSON.

```bash
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/horizon.py <command> [args...]
```

## Available commands

### Portfolio & Status
```bash
# Engine status: PnL, open orders, positions, kill switch, uptime
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/horizon.py status

# List all open positions
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/horizon.py positions

# List open orders (optionally for a specific market)
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/horizon.py orders [market_id]

# List recent fills
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/horizon.py fills
```

### Trading
```bash
# Submit a limit order: quote <market_id> <side> <price> <size> [market_side]
# side: buy or sell, price: 0-1 (probability), market_side: yes or no (default: yes)
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/horizon.py quote <market_id> buy 0.55 10
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/horizon.py quote <market_id> sell 0.40 5 no

# Cancel a single order
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/horizon.py cancel <order_id>

# Cancel all orders
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/horizon.py cancel-all

# Cancel all orders for a specific market
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/horizon.py cancel-market <market_id>
```

### Market Discovery
```bash
# Search for markets on an exchange
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/horizon.py discover <exchange> [query] [limit] [market_type] [category]
# market_type: "all" (default), "binary", or "multi"
# category: tag filter (e.g., "crypto", "politics", "sports") - uses server-side filtering

# Examples:
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/horizon.py discover polymarket "bitcoin"
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/horizon.py discover kalshi "election" 5
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/horizon.py discover polymarket "election" 10 multi
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/horizon.py discover polymarket "" 10 binary
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/horizon.py discover polymarket "" 20 all crypto

# Get comprehensive detail for a single market
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/horizon.py market-detail <slug_or_id> [exchange]

# Examples:
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/horizon.py market-detail will-bitcoin-reach-100k
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/horizon.py market-detail KXBTC-25FEB28 kalshi
```

### Kelly Sizing
```bash
# Compute optimal position size: kelly <prob> <price> <bankroll> [fraction] [max_size]
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/horizon.py kelly 0.65 0.50 1000
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/horizon.py kelly 0.70 0.55 2000 0.5 50
```

### Risk Management
```bash
# Activate kill switch (emergency stop - cancels all orders)
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/horizon.py kill-switch on "market crash"

# Deactivate kill switch
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/horizon.py kill-switch off

# Add stop-loss: stop-loss <market_id> <side> <order_side> <size> <trigger_price>
# side: yes or no, order_side: buy or sell
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/horizon.py stop-loss <market_id> yes sell 10 0.40

# Add take-profit: take-profit <market_id> <side> <order_side> <size> <trigger_price>
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/horizon.py take-profit <market_id> yes sell 10 0.80
```

### Feed Data & Health
```bash
# Get snapshot for a named feed
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/horizon.py feed <feed_name>

# List all feeds
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/horizon.py feeds

# Start a live data feed: start-feed <name> <feed_type> [config_json]
# feed_type: binance_ws, polymarket_book, kalshi_book, predictit,
#            manifold, espn, nws, chainlink, rest_json_path, rest
# Note: URL-based feeds (chainlink, rest_json_path, rest) require HTTPS public URLs.
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/horizon.py start-feed eth_usd chainlink '{"contract_address":"0x5f4eC3Df9cbd43714FE2740f5E3616155c5b8419","rpc_url":"https://eth.llamarpc.com"}'
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/horizon.py start-feed mf manifold '{"slug":"will-btc-hit-100k"}'

# Check feed staleness and health (optional threshold in seconds, default 30)
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/horizon.py feed-health [threshold]

# Get connection metrics for a feed (or all feeds)
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/horizon.py feed-metrics [feed_name]

# Check YES/NO price parity (optionally specify feed)
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/horizon.py parity <market_id> [feed_name]
```

### Contingent Orders
```bash
# List pending stop-loss/take-profit orders
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/horizon.py contingent
```

### Event Discovery
```bash
# Discover multi-outcome events on Polymarket
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/horizon.py discover-events "election"
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/horizon.py discover-events "" 5

# Get top markets by volume
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/horizon.py top-markets polymarket 10
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/horizon.py top-markets kalshi 5 "KXBTC"
```

### Wallet Analytics (Polymarket - no auth required)
```bash
# Trade history for a wallet
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/horizon.py wallet-trades 0x1234... [limit] [condition_id]

# Trade history for a market
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/horizon.py market-trades 0xabc... [limit] [side] [min_size]

# Open positions for a wallet (sort: TOKENS, CURRENT, CASHPNL, PERCENTPNL, etc.)
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/horizon.py wallet-positions 0x1234... 50 CURRENT

# Total portfolio value in USD
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/horizon.py wallet-value 0x1234...

# Public profile (pseudonym, bio, X handle)
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/horizon.py wallet-profile 0x1234...

# Top holders in a market
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/horizon.py top-holders 0xabc... [limit]

# Trade flow analysis (buy/sell volume, net flow, top buyers/sellers)
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/horizon.py market-flow 0xabc... [trade_limit] [top_n]
```

### Monte Carlo Simulation
```bash
# Simulate portfolio risk (uses current engine positions)
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/horizon.py simulate [scenarios] [seed]
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/horizon.py simulate 50000
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/horizon.py simulate 10000 42
```

### Arbitrage
```bash
# Execute atomic cross-exchange arb: arb <market_id> <buy_exchange> <sell_exchange> <buy_price> <sell_price> <size>
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/horizon.py arb will-btc-hit-100k kalshi polymarket 0.48 0.52 10
```

### Quantitative Analytics
```bash
# Shannon entropy for a probability
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/horizon.py entropy 0.65

# KL divergence between two distributions (comma-separated)
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/horizon.py kl-divergence 0.3,0.7 0.5,0.5

# Hurst exponent for a price series (comma-separated)
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/horizon.py hurst 0.50,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.53

# Variance ratio test for returns (comma-separated) [period]
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/horizon.py variance-ratio 0.01,-0.02,0.03,-0.01,0.02

# Cornish-Fisher VaR/CVaR (comma-separated returns) [confidence]
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/horizon.py cf-var 0.01,-0.02,0.03,-0.05,0.02 0.95

# Prediction Greeks: greeks <price> <size> [is_yes] [t_hours] [vol]
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/horizon.py greeks 0.55 100 true 24 0.2

# Deflated Sharpe ratio: deflated-sharpe <sharpe> <n_obs> <n_trials> [skew] [kurt]
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/horizon.py deflated-sharpe 1.5 252 10

# Signal diagnostics (comma-separated predictions and outcomes)
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/horizon.py signal-diagnostics 0.6,0.3,0.8 1,0,1

# Market efficiency test (comma-separated prices)
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/horizon.py market-efficiency 0.50,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.53,0.51

# Stress test on current positions