market-sizer

Included with Lifetime

$97 forever

Use this skill when users need to calculate market size (TAM/SAM/SOM), assess market opportunity, validate market potential, or determine if a market is big enough to pursue. Activates for "how big is the market," "TAM," "market sizing," or market opportunity questions.

General

What this skill does


# Market Sizer - TAM/SAM/SOM Calculator

## Overview

Market sizing specialist applying Hexa's practical market assessment methodology. Help founders determine if their target market is big enough using rigorous bottom-up AND top-down analysis.

**Hexa's Core Principle:** "Make sure you can approximate how big the market is—ideally by confronting bottom-up and top-down analysis."

## When This Activates

- "how big is the market"
- TAM, SAM, or SOM questions
- "is the market big enough"
- Validating market opportunity
- Investor conversations about market
- "size this opportunity"

## Core Definitions

| Term | Definition | What It Means |
|------|------------|---------------|
| **TAM** | Total Addressable Market | Everyone who could theoretically buy |
| **SAM** | Serviceable Available Market | The segment you can actually reach |
| **SOM** | Serviceable Obtainable Market | What you can realistically capture in 3-5 years |

## The Framework: Dual-Analysis

**Market Size = Bottom-Up Analysis + Top-Down Analysis + Timing Assessment**

### Bottom-Up (Build from Units)

```
TAM = Total Potential Customers × Annual Revenue Per Customer
SAM = TAM × Percentage You Can Reach
SOM = SAM × Realistic Market Share (1-5% years 1-3)
```

### Top-Down (Start from Industry)

Start with industry reports, narrow to your slice.

**Common Sources:** Gartner, Forrester, Statista, IBISWorld, CB Insights

## Market Size Adequacy Test

| Your Goal | Required SOM | Required SAM |
|-----------|--------------|--------------|
| Lifestyle ($500K-2M/year) | $500K-2M | $10M+ |
| Venture-scale ($10M+ ARR) | $10M+ | $100M+ |
| Unicorn potential ($100M+) | $100M+ | $1B+ |

**The 10% Rule:** If you captured 10% of SAM, would that be interesting?

## Sanity Check

The two methods should be within 2-3x of each other.

| Variance | Meaning | Action |
|----------|---------|--------|
| < 50% | Good alignment | Proceed with confidence |
| 50-200% | Reasonable | Investigate discrepancy |
| > 200% | Major misalignment | One method is wrong |

## Market Stage Assessment

| Stage | Characteristics | Implication |
|-------|-----------------|-------------|
| **Emerging** | < $100M, few players | High risk, high reward |
| **Growing** | 20%+ growth, new entrants | Good timing |
| **Mature** | < 10% growth, clear leaders | Need strong wedge |
| **Declining** | Negative growth | Avoid unless transforming |

## Integration

| Skill | When to Use |
|-------|-------------|
| `idea-validator` | Validate the idea for this market |
| `startup-icp-definer` | Define ideal customer in this market |
| `competitive-intelligence-analyst` | Deep dive on competitors |
| `fundraise-advisor` | Present market size to investors |

---

**For complete bottom-up/top-down worksheets, market dynamics assessment, timing analysis framework, output format template, market size benchmarks by business type and ACV, and common mistakes to avoid, see:** `references/full-guide.md`

Files: 3

Size: 14.0 KB

Complexity: 34/100

Category: General

Source: https://github.com/shipshitdev/library/tree/main/bundles/startup/skills/market-sizer

Related in General

modeling-omnistudio-epc-catalog

Included

Salesforce Industries CME EPC product-modeling skill for Product2-based catalog creation. Use when creating EPC products, configuring product attributes, building offer bundles with Product Child Items, or reviewing EPC DataPack JSON metadata for product catalog changes. TRIGGER when: user creates or updates Product2 EPC records, AttributeAssignment payloads, AttributeMetadata/AttributeDefaultValues, Offer bundles, or ProductChildItem relationships. DO NOT TRIGGER when: designing OmniScripts/FlexCards/Integration Procedures (use building-omnistudio-omniscript, building-omnistudio-flexcard, or building-omnistudio-integration-procedure), implementing Apex business logic (use generating-apex), or troubleshooting deployment pipelines (use deploying-metadata).

Generalscripts

relationship-science-coach

Included

Use this skill for direct, practical adult relationship coaching: couples conflict, repair, trust, marriage, dating, flirting, attachment patterns, emotional connection, sex, desire differences, eroticism, kink negotiation, affection, love languages, breakups, and long-term passion. Draw on Gottman, EFT and Hold Me Tight, attachment science, modern sex research, Perel, Nagoski, Kerner, Schnarch, Love and Stosny, and flexible love-language tools. Be concrete and low-hedge. Redirect only for imminent danger, abuse, coercive control, minors, non-consent, self-harm, stalking, or medical/legal/psychiatric decisions.

Generalscripts

building-sf-integrations

Included

Salesforce integration architecture and runtime plumbing with 120-point scoring. Use this skill to set up Named Credentials, External Credentials, External Services, REST/SOAP callout patterns, Platform Events, and Change Data Capture. TRIGGER when: user sets up Named Credentials, External Services, REST/SOAP callouts, Platform Events, CDC, or touches .namedCredential-meta.xml files. DO NOT TRIGGER when: Connected App/OAuth config (use configuring-connected-apps), Apex-only logic (use generating-apex), or data import/export (use handling-sf-data).

Generalscripts

venue-templates

Included

Access comprehensive LaTeX templates, formatting requirements, and submission guidelines for major scientific publication venues (Nature, Science, PLOS, IEEE, ACM), academic conferences (NeurIPS, ICML, CVPR, CHI), research posters, and grant proposals (NSF, NIH, DOE, DARPA). This skill should be used when preparing manuscripts for journal submission, conference papers, research posters, or grant proposals and need venue-specific formatting requirements and templates.

Generalscripts

let-fate-decide

Included

Draws the 12 Houses of the Zodiac Tarot spread to inject entropy into planning when prompts are vague, ambiguous, or casually delegated. Interprets the spread to guide next steps. Use when the user says 'let fate decide', 'YOLO', 'whatever', 'idk', or other nonchalant phrases, makes Yu-Gi-Oh references, or when you are about to arbitrarily pick between multiple reasonable approaches. Prefer over ask-questions-if-underspecified when the user's tone is casual or playful rather than precision-seeking.

Generalscripts

net-ops

Included

Cross-platform network troubleshooting (Windows, macOS, Linux) via local or remote shell. Use for: DNS broken, can't resolve hostnames, nslookup/dig works but apps fail, NRPT, WFP, scutil, /etc/resolver, systemd-resolved, /etc/resolv.conf, NetworkManager, VPN DNS leak residue (ProtonVPN/Mullvad/WireGuard/AnyConnect), AV/firewall blocking DNS or DoH, Tailscale DNS interaction, intermittent connectivity, remote diagnostics over SSH.

Generalscripts