merger-model
Build accretion/dilution analysis for M&A transactions. Models pro forma EPS impact, synergy sensitivities, and purchase price allocation. Use when evaluating a potential acquisition, preparing merger consequences analysis for a pitch, or advising on deal terms. Triggers on "merger model", "accretion dilution", "M&A model", "pro forma EPS", "merger consequences", or "deal impact analysis".
What this skill does
# Merger Model ## Workflow ### Step 1: Gather Inputs **Acquirer:** - Company name, current share price, shares outstanding - LTM and NTM EPS (GAAP and adjusted) - P/E multiple - Pre-tax cost of debt, tax rate - Cash on balance sheet, existing debt **Target:** - Company name, current share price, shares outstanding (if public) - LTM and NTM EPS or net income - Enterprise value or equity value **Deal Terms:** - Offer price per share (or premium to current) - Consideration mix: % cash vs. % stock - New debt raised to fund cash portion - Expected synergies (revenue and cost) and phase-in timeline - Transaction fees and financing costs - Expected close date ### Step 2: Purchase Price Analysis | Item | Value | |------|-------| | Offer price per share | | | Premium to current | | | Equity value | | | Plus: net debt assumed | | | Enterprise value | | | EV / EBITDA implied | | | P/E implied | | ### Step 3: Sources & Uses | Sources | $ | Uses | $ | |---------|---|------|---| | New debt | | Equity purchase price | | | Cash on hand | | Refinance target debt | | | New equity issued | | Transaction fees | | | | | Financing fees | | | **Total** | | **Total** | | ### Step 4: Pro Forma EPS (Accretion / Dilution) Calculate year-by-year (Year 1-3): | | Standalone | Pro Forma | Accretion/(Dilution) | |---|-----------|-----------|---------------------| | Acquirer net income | | | | | Target net income | | | | | Synergies (after tax) | | | | | Foregone interest on cash (after tax) | | | | | New debt interest (after tax) | | | | | Intangible amortization (after tax) | | | | | Pro forma net income | | | | | Pro forma shares | | | | | **Pro forma EPS** | | | | | **Accretion / (Dilution) %** | | | | ### Step 5: Sensitivity Analysis **Accretion/Dilution vs. Synergies and Offer Premium:** | | $0M syn | $25M syn | $50M syn | $75M syn | $100M syn | |---|---------|----------|----------|----------|-----------| | 15% premium | | | | | | | 20% premium | | | | | | | 25% premium | | | | | | | 30% premium | | | | | | **Accretion/Dilution vs. Cash/Stock Mix:** | | 100% cash | 75/25 | 50/50 | 25/75 | 100% stock | |---|-----------|-------|-------|-------|------------| | Year 1 | | | | | | | Year 2 | | | | | | ### Step 6: Breakeven Synergies Calculate the minimum synergies needed for the deal to be EPS-neutral in Year 1. ### Step 7: Output - Excel workbook with: - Assumptions tab - Sources & uses - Pro forma income statement - Accretion/dilution summary - Sensitivity tables - Breakeven analysis - One-page merger consequences summary for pitch book ## Important Notes - Always show both GAAP and adjusted (cash) EPS where relevant - Stock deals: use acquirer's current price for exchange ratio, note dilution from new shares - Include purchase price allocation — goodwill and intangible amortization matter for GAAP EPS - Synergy phase-in is critical — Year 1 is often only 25-50% of run-rate synergies - Don't forget foregone interest income on cash used and new interest expense on debt raised - Tax rate on synergies and interest adjustments should match the acquirer's marginal rate
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