mlb-closer-tracker

What this skill does

# MLB Closer Tracker

## Table of Contents
- [Example](#example)
- [Workflow](#workflow)
- [Common Patterns](#common-patterns)
- [Guardrails](#guardrails)
- [Quick Reference](#quick-reference)

## Example

**Scenario**: User asks "who should I stash — any good handcuff closers on waivers?" in mid-April. Three teams of interest have unsettled ninth innings.

**Inputs gathered (web search — RotoBaller primary, Closer Monkey secondary, Athlon Closer Confidential)**:

| Team | Current 9th | Next in line | Third option | Situation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | Emmanuel Clase | Cade Smith | Hunter Gaddis | Clase firmly locked — elite K/9 and walk rate |
| TEX | Chris Martin | Robert Garcia | Hoby Milner | Committee language from manager; Martin 39 years old |
| DET | Jason Foley | Tommy Kahnle | Beau Brieske | Foley has two blown saves in a week; velo down 1.2 mph |

**Signal emission (per RP)**:

| Pitcher | save_role_certainty | Owned in league? | Rec action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Clase | 95 | Yes (by user) | HOLD |
| Cade Smith | 35 | No | ADD on spec, BID $2 |
| Chris Martin | 55 | Yes (opponent) | IGNORE |
| Robert Garcia | 45 | No | ADD, BID $6 — true committee, high handcuff value |
| Jason Foley | 40 | Yes (opponent) | IGNORE (hold only if we owned him) |
| Tommy Kahnle | 50 | No | ADD, BID $8 — velo trend + recent Foley blowups = highest speculation value |

**Output signal file** (`signals/2026-04-17-closer.md`):

```yaml
---
type: closer
date: 2026-04-17
emitted_by: mlb-closer-tracker
confidence: 0.78
source_urls:
  - https://www.rotoballer.com/mlb-saves-closers-depth-charts/226767
  - https://closermonkey.com
  - https://www.athlonsports.com/fantasy/closer-confidential
---
```

**Punt-SV caveat surfaced**: "If all three speculation adds fail, remember SV is our most punt-worthy cat. A plan exists in `mlb-category-strategist` output to concede SV and redirect innings to K/QS — do not chase saves past $10 FAAB on any single handcuff."

**Handoff**: `mlb-waiver-analyst` reads the signal and sizes FAAB bids on Kahnle, Garcia, and Smith. `mlb-category-strategist` reads the same signal to decide whether to push or punt SV this week.

## Workflow

Copy this checklist and track progress:

```
Closer Tracker Progress:
- [ ] Step 1: Pull RotoBaller closer depth chart (all 30 teams)
- [ ] Step 2: Cross-reference Closer Monkey and Athlon Closer Confidential
- [ ] Step 3: Score save_role_certainty for the top 3 RPs per team
- [ ] Step 4: Flag committee / DFA-risk situations
- [ ] Step 5: Identify speculation-worthy handcuffs (rostered vs available)
- [ ] Step 6: Emit signal file and hand to waiver-analyst and category-strategist
```

**Step 1: Pull the RotoBaller closer depth chart**

Web-search `site:rotoballer.com closer depth chart 2026` or hit the URL directly. This is the primary source for all 30 teams. Record each team's top 3 relievers with the role tag RotoBaller assigns (Closer / Next Man Up / Committee / Setup).

See [resources/methodology.md](resources/methodology.md#primary-source-rotoballer) for the source hierarchy and how to handle stale pages.

- [ ] All 30 teams covered (no team skipped even if role is stable)
- [ ] Top 3 RPs recorded per team
- [ ] RotoBaller role label captured verbatim

**Step 2: Cross-reference secondary sources**

Closer Monkey and Athlon's "Closer Confidential" often lead RotoBaller by 24-48 hours on role changes, especially early season. If two sources disagree, that disagreement itself lowers `save_role_certainty` (volatility penalty).

See [resources/methodology.md](resources/methodology.md#secondary-sources) for tie-break rules.

- [ ] Closer Monkey checked for the top 8-10 volatile situations
- [ ] Athlon Closer Confidential grade captured (if April / early-season)
- [ ] Any disagreements logged as volatility flags

**Step 3: Score save_role_certainty**

Use the scoring rubric in [resources/methodology.md](resources/methodology.md#save-role-certainty-rubric). The five inputs are: role label, recent blown saves, velocity trend, manager public comments, contract/age status. Output 0-100.

- [ ] Each top-3 RP scored
- [ ] Committee situations: no RP scores above 60
- [ ] Locked closers score 85-100
- [ ] DFA / demotion risk scores below 30

**Step 4: Flag committee and DFA-risk situations**

A committee is worth flagging even when we own the current "closer" — volatility means save_role_certainty is low regardless of who holds the ninth inning right now. DFA risk applies when an RP has lost the role AND is burning option years or is on a non-guaranteed deal.

- [ ] Committee flag on any team where top-2 scores are within 15 points
- [ ] DFA-risk flag on any ex-closer with role_certainty < 25

**Step 5: Identify speculation targets**

A speculation target = handcuff (next-in-line) with `save_role_certainty` in the 30-60 range whose current closer has any of: recent blown saves (2+ in 10 days), velocity loss (>1 mph), negative manager quote, age/injury flag.

See [resources/template.md](resources/template.md#speculation-target-table) for the output format.

- [ ] Each target is cross-referenced against Yahoo availability
- [ ] Targets ranked by expected save share × availability
- [ ] No speculation bid > $10 FAAB without category-strategist concurrence (SV is the most punt-worthy cat)

**Step 6: Emit signal file**

Write `signals/YYYY-MM-DD-closer.md` with one `save_role_certainty` entry per top-3 RP per team (up to 90 entries). Call `mlb-signal-emitter` to validate. See [resources/template.md](resources/template.md) for the full output structure.

- [ ] Frontmatter complete: type, date, emitted_by, confidence, source_urls
- [ ] Every RP has `save_role_certainty` in valid 0-100 range
- [ ] Committee and DFA flags included
- [ ] Handcuff recommendations ranked

Validate using [resources/evaluators/rubric_mlb_closer_tracker.json](resources/evaluators/rubric_mlb_closer_tracker.json). Minimum standard: average score 3.5 or above.

## Common Patterns

**Pattern 1: Locked Elite Closer (Clase, Duran, Iglesias tier)**
- `save_role_certainty`: 85-100 for incumbent, 15-25 for handcuff
- Handcuff has low speculation value unless incumbent is injured
- Action: HOLD if owned; no spec bid on handcuff

**Pattern 2: True Committee (manager public quote: "we'll use matchups")**
- `save_role_certainty`: 40-60 for top 2-3 arms, top-2 within 15 points
- Handcuff value is HIGH — both arms can vulture saves
- Action: If no cheap closer owned, ADD the platoon handcuff (opposite-handed reliever)

**Pattern 3: Veteran Closer On Thin Ice (age 35+, declining velo)**
- `save_role_certainty`: 55-75 for incumbent, 40-55 for heir
- Incumbent could be removed mid-April on any rough stretch
- Action: Stash the heir — this is the highest EV speculation profile

**Pattern 4: DFA-Risk Ex-Closer**
- `save_role_certainty`: < 25
- Role already lost; roster spot at risk if he can't hold setup
- Action: DROP if owned; never ADD

## Guardrails

1. **Cover all 30 teams every run.** Even locked situations need a score so downstream agents can reason about trade targets. A missing team is worse than a low-confidence score.

2. **Web-search every time.** Closer roles change overnight. A 24-hour-old RotoBaller snapshot is stale. Always pull fresh on the day you emit the signal.

3. **Committees penalize even the current closer.** If three sources call a situation a committee, the named closer does not get an 85 score — they get a 55 at most. Volatility = low certainty, regardless of who just got the last save.

4. **Never recommend a FAAB bid above $10 on a single handcuff without category-strategist concurrence.** SV is this league's most punt-worthy pitcher category. Over-spending on speculative saves drains FAAB that could land a two-start SP or a breakout hitter. The waiver-analyst enforces this ceiling.

5. **Velocity is the leading indicator.** A 1+ mph drop on a closer's fastball, sustained across 3+ outings, predicts role loss better than any