Prediction Stack Setup

What this skill does

# Prediction Stack Setup — One-Command System Activation

## Overview

<!-- CODEX: reconciled setup docs with the 10-skill stack and the public Anthropic-backed reference path. -->
This skill wires the 10-skill OpenClaw Prediction Market Trading Stack into a connected, proactive system. Without setup, skills work individually when you ask for them. After setup, the runtime skills run autonomously — scanning markets, detecting edges, monitoring positions, and delivering intelligence to your phone on a schedule.

**What it does:**
1. Detects which stack skills are installed
2. Configures API keys and credentials
3. **Validates all APIs before creating jobs** (prevents silent failures)
4. Creates scheduled jobs (cron) for each skill
5. Enables heartbeat for ambient awareness
6. Sets up iMessage delivery
7. Tests the full pipeline end-to-end

**Time to complete:** Under 5 minutes

## When to Use This Skill

- You just installed the Prediction Market Trading Stack (all 8 skills or any subset)
- You just installed the Prediction Market Trading Stack (all 10 skills or any subset)
- You want to activate automated scanning and alerts
- You need to change your delivery target (new phone, new email handle)
- You want to adjust scan schedules or alert thresholds
- You're migrating from a previous setup or starting fresh
- Something broke and you want to rewire from scratch

## Prerequisites

### Required
- **OpenClaw** installed and running (gateway active)
- **At least one stack skill** installed (any of the 10)
- **Kalshi account** with API credentials (free at kalshi.com)
- **Anthropic API key** (for Claude Sonnet estimation in Kalshalyst)

### Optional (Enhances the Stack)
- **Polygon.io API key** (free tier — adds news context to Kalshalyst)
- **Ollama + Qwen** installed locally (free — adds offline fallback + Xpulse materiality gate)
- **BlueBubbles** running on your Mac (required for iMessage delivery)

## Setup Procedure

### Phase 1: Skill Detection

First, check which stack skills are installed. Run this command:

```bash
openclaw skills list | grep -E "kalshalyst|kalshi-command|polymarket-command|prediction-market-arbiter|xpulse|portfolio-drift|market-morning-brief|personality-engine"
```

**The 10 stack skills:**

| Skill | Role | Required For |
|-------|------|-------------|
| Kalshalyst | Edge detection engine | Edge alerts, Morning Brief edges section |
| Kalshi Command Center | Trade execution | Executing on Kalshalyst recommendations |
| Polymarket Command Center | Market data | Arbiter comparisons, Morning Brief Polymarket section |
| Prediction Market Arbiter | Cross-platform divergences | Arbitrage alerts, Morning Brief divergences section |
| Xpulse | Social signal scanner | Signal alerts, Morning Brief X signals section |
| Portfolio Drift Monitor | Position monitoring | Drift alerts between briefs |
| Market Morning Brief | Daily digest | Consolidated morning/evening intelligence |
| Personality Engine | Agent behavior | Consistent voice across all output |
| Prediction Stack Orchestrator | Premium/experimental pipeline manager | Validation and execution routing |
| Prediction Stack Setup | Setup wizard | Validation, scheduling, delivery wiring |

**Minimum viable stack:** Kalshalyst + Kalshi Command Center + Market Morning Brief. These three give you edge detection, execution, and daily digest. Everything else enriches the system.

**Full stack:** All 10 skills. Morning Brief pulls from every cache and the orchestrator adds a premium/experimental automation path on top.

Install missing skills:
```bash
clawhub install <skill-name>
```

### Phase 2: API Key Configuration

Create or update `~/.openclaw/config.yaml`:

```yaml
# === REQUIRED ===

kalshi:
  enabled: true
  api_key_id: "YOUR_KALSHI_KEY_ID"
  private_key_file: "~/.openclaw/keys/kalshi-secret.pem"

# === REQUIRED FOR KALSHALYST ===
# Set as environment variable or in config:
# export ANTHROPIC_API_KEY="sk-ant-..."

# === OPTIONAL — ENHANCES EDGE QUALITY ===

polygon:
  api_key: "YOUR_POLYGON_KEY"   # Free tier at polygon.io

ollama:
  enabled: true                  # For Xpulse materiality gate + Kalshalyst fallback
  model: "qwen3:latest"
  timeout_seconds: 60

# === SKILL-SPECIFIC TUNING (sensible defaults shown) ===

kalshalyst:
  enabled: true
  check_interval_minutes: 60
  min_volume: 50
  min_days_to_close: 7
  max_days_to_close: 365
  max_markets_to_analyze: 50
  min_edge_pct: 3.0
  alert_edge_pct: 6.0

xpulse:
  enabled: true
  check_interval_minutes: 30
  topics:
    - "Trump tariff"
    - "Ukraine"
    - "inflation CPI"
    - "Fed rate decision"
  min_confidence: 0.7
  materiality_gate: true
  position_gate: true

portfolio_drift:
  threshold_pct: 5.0
  check_interval_minutes: 60
```

**Kalshi key setup** (if you don't have one yet):
1. Log in at https://kalshi.com
2. Go to Settings → API Keys
3. Generate a new key pair
4. Save the private key:
```bash
mkdir -p ~/.openclaw/keys
# Paste your private key into this file:
nano ~/.openclaw/keys/kalshi-secret.pem
chmod 600 ~/.openclaw/keys/kalshi-secret.pem
```

### Phase 2.5: Validate API Keys

**Before creating cron jobs, verify that all configured APIs are working.** This prevents hours of silent failures where the stack runs but can't reach its data sources.

Run the validation script:

```bash
python ~/skills/prediction-stack-setup/scripts/validate_setup.py
```

**Output Example:**
```
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Prediction Stack API Validation
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

REQUIRED SERVICES (must pass for stack to function)
──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
✅ PASS Kalshi API             (REQUIRED)       (245ms)
✅ PASS Anthropic (Claude)     (REQUIRED)       (1320ms)

OPTIONAL SERVICES (enhance edge detection and resilience)
──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
✅ PASS Polygon.io API         (optional)       (180ms)
❌ FAIL Ollama (Qwen)          (optional)       (15ms)
   Error: Ollama not running on localhost:11434
✅ PASS Polymarket API         (optional)       (95ms)

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Required: 2/2 passed
Optional: 2/3 passed

✅ All required services validated. Stack is ready to launch.
```

**What each validation tests:**

| Service | Required | Test | Failure Handling |
|---------|----------|------|------------------|
| **Kalshi** | Yes | `get_balance()` call | Blocks setup if auth fails |
| **Claude** | Yes | Simple completion call | Blocks setup if key invalid |
| **Polygon.io** | No | Public market status endpoint | Kalshalyst works without it |
| **Ollama/Qwen** | No | Model availability + inference | Kalshalyst uses Claude fallback |
| **Polymarket** | No | Public API endpoint access | Arbiter works without it |

**If validation fails on REQUIRED services:**

1. **Kalshi fails** — Check error message:
   - "Authentication failed": Verify key ID and private key file are correct at https://kalshi.com/settings/api
   - "Network error": Verify internet connectivity, check Kalshi status at status.kalshi.com
   - "File not found": Verify `private_key_file` path in config.yaml exists and is readable

2. **Claude fails** — Check error message:
   - "Invalid or expired API key": Generate a new key at https://console.anthropic.com/account/keys
   - "Network error": Verify internet connectivity
   - "Rate limited": Wait 60 seconds and retry

3. **Optional services fail** — This is OK. The stack will work but with reduced functionality:
   - Polygon.io missing: Kalshalyst estimates will lack news context
   - Ollama missing: Kalshalyst will use Claude for all estimates (higher cost)
   - Polymarket missing: Arbiter won't find cross-platform divergences

**To validate only specific services:**

```bash
# Test only Kalshi (useful for debugging)
python ~/skills/prediction-stack-setup/scripts/validate_setup.py --kalshi-only