research

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Research prediction markets - base rates, resolution rules, historical data

General

What this skill does


# Research Skill

Help users research markets with base rates, resolution criteria, and historical analogies.

## Commands

### Base Rate Lookup
```
/baserate incumbent senators losing
/baserate fed rate cuts when inflation below 3%
/baserate supreme court overturning precedent
```

### Resolution Rules
```
/resolution [market-id]
```

### Historical Analogs
```
/history similar to "Trump 2028"
```

## Research Areas

### Political Markets
- Incumbent win rates by office type
- Primary prediction accuracy
- Polling vs outcome correlations
- Electoral college patterns

### Economic Markets
- Fed rate decision patterns
- Recession indicator accuracy
- Inflation forecast track records
- Employment report surprises

### Sports/Events
- Historical upset frequencies
- Weather event base rates
- Award show prediction accuracy

## Examples

User: "What's the base rate for Senate incumbents losing?"
→ Historical analysis: 8.2% since 1980
→ Key factors: approval rating, scandals, wave elections

User: "How does the market usually resolve for Fed meetings?"
→ Explain FOMC resolution criteria
→ Show historical price action around announcements

User: "Has a market like this been wrong before?"
→ Find similar historical markets
→ Show when market consensus missed

## Output Format

```
🔬 BASE RATE ANALYSIS

Query: Senate incumbent losing reelection

Historical Rate: 8.2% (47/572 since 1980)

Key Factors:
• Approval < 45%: 23% lose
• Major scandal: 31% lose
• Wave election (opposite party): 15% lose
• First-term incumbent: 12% lose

Relevant Markets:
• Ted Cruz 2024: 52¢ (current)
• Jon Tester 2024: 38¢ (current)

Sources: FEC data, Cook Political Report
```

Files: 2

Size: 7.7 KB

Complexity: 16/100

Category: General

Source: https://github.com/alsk1992/cloddsbot/tree/main/src/skills/bundled/research

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