retirement-readiness

What this skill does

# Retirement Readiness — Three-Pillar Projection

Assess overall retirement readiness across all three German pension pillars (statutory, occupational, private). Quantify the pension gap (Versorgungslücke) and model scenarios including capital redirection toward property purchase. Produce a comprehensive projection report.

Load `${CLAUDE_PLUGIN_ROOT}/skills/financial-analysis/references/german-financial-system.md` for pension system overview, tax parameters, and regulatory context.

For detailed calculation methodology — Entgeltpunkte formulas, bAV projection by vehicle type, Wohn-Riester rules, and capital redirection modeling — load `references/three-pillar-methodology.md`.

## Step 1: Gather Data

Read the following input files. If any file is missing or incomplete, note the gaps explicitly and proceed with available data. Never fabricate financial figures.

- `finance/data/pension.md` — all private and occupational pension products (provider, type, contributions, fees, current value, projected payouts)
- `finance/data/employment.md` — gross salary, net salary, Steuerklasse, employer bAV contributions, employment history (for GRV contribution years), VL details

If `finance/reports/pension-evaluation-*.md` exists and is recent (within 3 months), read it to incorporate the single-product analysis rather than recalculating.

Parse all monetary values into EUR. Note the date of each data point to flag stale information.

## Step 2: Pillar 1 — Statutory Pension (Gesetzliche Rentenversicherung)

Project the statutory pension at standard retirement age (Regelaltersgrenze, currently 67).

1. **Determine German contribution years**: From employment data, count the years the user has been employed in Germany (pflichtversichert in the GRV). Note any periods abroad that might count under EU Regulation 883/2004.

2. **Estimate Entgeltpunkte (earnings points)**: For each contribution year, calculate:
   ```
   Entgeltpunkte = Gross annual salary / Durchschnittsentgelt (average national earnings)
   ```
   Cap at the Beitragsbemessungsgrenze (contribution ceiling). Web search for the current Durchschnittsentgelt and Beitragsbemessungsgrenze.

3. **Project future Entgeltpunkte**: Assume current salary continues (adjusted for inflation if specified) until age 67. Sum all past and projected Entgeltpunkte.

4. **Calculate monthly pension**: Web search for the current Rentenwert (pension point value). Calculate:
   ```
   Monthly GRV pension = Total Entgeltpunkte × Rentenwert × Zugangsfaktor (1.0 at age 67)
   ```

5. **Note limitations**: GRV projections assume no career breaks, no salary changes, and stable Rentenwert growth. Flag these assumptions explicitly.

If the user has a Renteninformation (annual GRV statement), use the projected values directly rather than estimating.

## Step 3: Pillar 2 — Occupational Pension (Betriebliche Altersvorsorge)

Read bAV details from employment data.

1. **Identify the bAV vehicle**: Direktversicherung, Pensionskasse, Pensionsfonds, Unterstützungskasse, or Direktzusage. Each has different projection methods.

2. **Current contributions**: Sum employee Entgeltumwandlung and employer Arbeitgeberzuschuss. Calculate the total annual contribution.

3. **Project the bAV payout at retirement**:
   - For Direktversicherung / Pensionskasse: use the provider's projected payout if available from the Standmitteilung. Otherwise, model with a conservative return assumption (2–4% for traditional, 4–6% for fund-linked).
   - For Direktzusage / Unterstützungskasse: use the employer's commitment formula if known.

4. **Tax treatment**: bAV payouts are subject to full income tax (nachgelagerte Besteuerung) plus health insurance contributions in retirement (~11% KVdR + PVdR). Apply an estimated retirement tax rate (typically lower than working-life rate).

If there is no bAV, note this as a gap and flag that the user has a legal right to Entgeltumwandlung (§1a BetrAVG).

## Step 4: Pillar 3 — Private Pension and Savings

Compile all private retirement provisions:

1. **Subsidized products**: Riester-Rente, Rürup-Rente (Basisrente) — extract projected payouts, current values, and contribution amounts from pension data.

2. **Unsubsidized products**: Private Rentenversicherung, fondsgebundene Rentenversicherung — extract projected payouts.

3. **Self-directed investments**: ETF Sparplan, Depot holdings from `finance/data/bank-accounts.md` — if earmarked for retirement, project the value at 67 using assumed returns (7% gross, minus TER, minus Abgeltungsteuer on realization).

4. If a pension-evaluation report exists (`finance/reports/pension-evaluation-*.md`), reference its findings for the detailed single-product analysis rather than re-doing the work.

For each product, note the projected monthly payout or the capital value and convert to a monthly withdrawal using the 4% rule (for liquid assets) or the provider's annuity factor (for insurance products).

## Step 5: Gap Analysis (Versorgungslücke)

1. **Target retirement income**: Calculate 70–80% of current net monthly income as the baseline target. Adjust for:
   - No more Sozialversicherungsbeiträge in retirement (saves ~20% of gross)
   - No more savings contributions (frees up that portion of income)
   - Lower tax rate in retirement (fewer deductions needed, but pension income is taxed)

2. **Total projected retirement income**: Sum the monthly projections from Pillars 1 + 2 + 3.

3. **Pension gap (Versorgungslücke)**: Calculate:
   ```
   Monthly gap = Target retirement income - Total projected retirement income
   ```
   Express in both nominal EUR and real EUR (inflation-adjusted at 2% to retirement age).

4. **Capital required to close the gap**: Using a 4% withdrawal rate, calculate the additional capital needed:
   ```
   Required capital = Monthly gap × 12 / 0.04
   ```

5. **Model three scenarios**:

   **Scenario A — Status quo**: Continue current contribution levels to all pension products. No changes. Project the gap at retirement.

   **Scenario B — Optimize within the pension system**:
   - Increase Rürup contributions to the deduction ceiling (tax savings reinvested)
   - Switch high-cost private pension to a low-cost alternative (or make paid-up and redirect to ETF)
   - Increase bAV contributions if employer matching is available
   - Calculate the reduced gap and the net cost (additional monthly outflow after tax savings)

   **Scenario C — Redirect to property equity**:
   - Make private pension paid-up (Beitragsfreistellung) or cancel
   - Redirect those contributions to a savings account earmarked for property down payment
   - Model the timeline to accumulate sufficient Eigenkapital for a property purchase
   - Calculate the retirement income impact: smaller Pillar 3 but potential rental income or eliminated rent expense

For each scenario, present a table showing projected monthly retirement income, pension gap, and required additional capital.

## Step 6: Wohn-Riester Modeling

If the user has a Riester-Rente, model the option to use it for property purchase under Wohn-Riester rules.

1. **Altersvorsorge-Eigenheimbetrag (§92a EStG)**: The user can withdraw up to 100% of the Riester capital for purchasing owner-occupied property. Calculate the available amount (current Riester contract value).

2. **Wohnförderkonto**: The withdrawn amount is booked to a notional Wohnförderkonto, which accrues at 2% annually until retirement. At retirement, the accumulated Wohnförderkonto balance is taxed as income (nachgelagerte Besteuerung), either spread over 17–25 years or as a lump sum with a 30% discount.

3. **Trade-off calculation**:
   - **Benefit**: Riester capital applied to property reduces mortgage amount → lower interest payments over the loan term. Calculate total interest savings.
   - **Cost**: Forgone Riester pension payout in retirement + tax liability on Wohnförderkonto balance at retirement.
   - Present the net benefit or net cost in EUR.

4. **Eligibility chec