scenario-war-room

What this skill does

# Scenario War Room

**Tier:** POWERFUL
**Category:** C-Level Advisory
**Tags:** scenario planning, war room, risk modeling, cascade effects, contingency planning, pre-mortem, crisis simulation

## Overview

The Scenario War Room models cascading what-if scenarios across all business functions. Not single-assumption stress tests -- compound adversity that shows how one problem creates the next, and where the cascade can be interrupted. Every scenario produces concrete hedges with costs, owners, and deadlines.

---

## When to Use

- A major risk has probability above 15% and impact above 20% of ARR
- Two or more threats could plausibly co-occur
- A strategic decision has significant downside if wrong
- Board or investors are asking "what's the worst case?"
- Pre-mortem before a major commitment (fundraise, acquisition, market entry)
- Quarterly risk review for leadership team

## When NOT to Use

- Single-variable financial sensitivity analysis (use CFO Advisor stress testing)
- Routine project risk assessment (use project management risk frameworks)
- Technical failure mode analysis (use engineering incident planning)

---

## The 6-Step Cascade Model

### Step 1: Define Scenario Variables (Maximum 3)

More than 3 variables creates analysis paralysis, not insight. Choose the 3 that actually keep leadership awake at night.

For each variable, specify:

| Field | Description | Example |
|-------|-----------|---------|
| **What changes** | Specific, quantified | "Top customer (28% of ARR) gives 60-day termination notice" |
| **Probability** | Your best estimate | 15% |
| **Timeline** | When it could hit | Within 90 days |
| **Detection signal** | How you would know it is happening | Sponsor goes dark, usage drops 25% MoM |

**Variable Template:**
```
Variable A: [Specific change]
  Probability: [X]%  |  Timeline: [When]
  Detection: [Early warning signal]
  First-order impact: [Immediate consequence]

Variable B: [Specific change]
  Probability: [X]%  |  Timeline: [When]
  Detection: [Early warning signal]
  First-order impact: [Immediate consequence]

Variable C: [Specific change]
  Probability: [X]%  |  Timeline: [When]
  Detection: [Early warning signal]
  First-order impact: [Immediate consequence]
```

### Step 2: Domain Impact Mapping

For each variable, assess impact across every business function:

| Domain | Key Questions | Typical Impact Areas |
|--------|-------------|---------------------|
| **Finance (CFO)** | Burn impact? Runway change? Bridge options? | Cash, runway, covenant triggers |
| **Revenue (CRO)** | ARR gap? Churn cascade? Pipeline affected? | NRR, expansion, new logo risk |
| **Product (CPO)** | Roadmap derailed? PMF at risk? Customer need shift? | Delivery timeline, feature priority |
| **Engineering (CTO)** | Velocity hit? Key person risk? Technical debt impact? | Capacity, architecture, hiring |
| **People (CHRO)** | Attrition cascade? Hiring freeze? Morale impact? | Retention, culture, bench strength |
| **Operations (COO)** | Capacity affected? Process breaks? OKR impact? | SLAs, efficiency, scale |
| **Market (CMO)** | CAC affected? Competitive exposure? Brand risk? | Pipeline generation, positioning |
| **Legal/Compliance** | Regulatory timeline risk? Contract exposure? | Obligations, deadlines, penalties |

### Step 3: Cascade Mapping (The Core)

This is the most valuable step. Map how Variable A triggers consequences that amplify Variable B.

**Cascade Diagram:**
```
TRIGGER: Customer churn ($560K ARR)
  │
  ├──▶ CFO: Runway drops 14 → 8 months
  │     │
  │     └──▶ CHRO: Hiring freeze imposed
  │           │
  │           └──▶ CTO: 3 open engineering reqs frozen, roadmap slips 2 months
  │                 │
  │                 └──▶ CPO: Q4 feature launch delayed → 2 more customers at risk
  │                       │
  │                       └──▶ CRO: NRR drops → additional churn risk (DEATH SPIRAL ENTRY)
  │
  └──▶ CRO: Revenue concentration increases (next largest = 22%)
        │
        └──▶ Investors: Concentration risk flagged → Series A terms worsen
```

**Name the cascades explicitly.** Common cascade patterns:

| Cascade Pattern | Description | Interruption Point |
|----------------|-------------|-------------------|
| Revenue-to-Runway Death Spiral | Customer churn → lower runway → hiring freeze → slower product → more churn | Emergency revenue diversification |
| Key Person Cascade | Star leaves → team morale drops → followers leave → velocity collapses | Retention bonuses before departure |
| Market Squeeze | Competitor raises → price war → margins compress → can't invest in product | Differentiation, not price matching |
| Trust Cascade | Incident → customer concern → churn → press → more churn | Swift, transparent communication |
| Fundraise-Burn Spiral | Miss target → raise delayed → bridge at bad terms → burn cuts → team loss | Parallel fundraise tracks |

### Step 4: Severity Matrix

Model three scenarios with increasing severity:

| Scenario | Variables Hit | Definition | Recovery Difficulty |
|----------|-------------|-----------|-------------------|
| **Base** | 1 of 3 | Single shock, others don't materialize | Manageable with prepared response |
| **Stress** | 2 of 3 | Compound shock, cascade begins | Requires significant pivot, board involvement |
| **Severe** | All 3 | Full cascade, existential territory | Requires emergency action, may need board intervention |

For each severity level, quantify:

```
BASE SCENARIO (Variable A only):
  Runway impact: [X] months → [Y] months
  ARR impact: -$[X] ([Y]% of total)
  Headcount impact: [freeze / reduction / none]
  Timeline to critical: [X] months
  Recovery plan: [specific actions]

STRESS SCENARIO (Variables A + B):
  Runway impact: [X] months → [Y] months
  ARR impact: -$[X] ([Y]% of total)
  Headcount impact: [specifics]
  Timeline to critical: [X] months
  Recovery plan: [specific actions]

SEVERE SCENARIO (All three):
  Runway impact: [X] months → [Y] months
  ARR impact: -$[X] ([Y]% of total)
  Headcount impact: [specifics]
  Timeline to critical: [X] months
  Existential: [yes/no]
  Emergency plan: [specific actions requiring board approval]
```

### Step 5: Early Warning Signals (Trigger Points)

Define measurable signals that tell you a scenario is unfolding BEFORE it is confirmed. The value of this exercise is acting early, not reacting late.

**Signal Design Criteria:**
- Observable (you can actually measure it)
- Leading (appears before the full impact)
- Specific (not just "things feel off")
- Actionable (triggers a specific response)

| Variable | Signal | Threshold | Response |
|----------|--------|-----------|----------|
| Customer churn | Sponsor stops responding | > 3 weeks silence | Exec escalation, QBR request |
| Customer churn | Usage drops | > 25% MoM decline | CS outreach, value review |
| Fundraise delay | Term sheets | < 3 after 60 days in process | Parallel bridge conversations |
| Fundraise delay | Investor requests | > 30 day DD extension | Reduce burn, extend runway |
| Key person departure | Market compensation | Counter-offer required in last 90 days | Retention package, succession plan |
| Key person departure | External engagement | Engineer presenting at conferences for competitors | Direct conversation, role expansion |

### Step 6: Hedging Strategies

For each scenario: actions to take NOW (before the scenario materializes) that reduce impact if it does. Hedges have costs -- the goal is cheap insurance, not paranoia.

**Hedge Evaluation Criteria:**

| Criterion | Question |
|-----------|----------|
| Cost | What does this hedge cost to implement? |
| Reversibility | Can we undo it if the scenario doesn't happen? |
| Lead time | How long to implement? (Must be shorter than detection-to-impact window) |
| Coverage | Which scenarios does this hedge protect against? |
| Side effects | Does this hedge cause other problems? |

**Hedge Table Template:**

| Hedge | Cost | Protects Against | Owner | Deadline | Status |