senior-pm

What this skill does

# Senior Project Management Expert

## Overview

Strategic project management for enterprise software, SaaS, and digital transformation initiatives. This skill provides sophisticated portfolio management capabilities, quantitative analysis tools, and executive-level reporting frameworks for managing complex, multi-million dollar project portfolios.

## Use when

- The user asks to "run a portfolio health review", "build an executive status report", or "do a stakeholder map"
- Multiple projects need prioritization across WSJF / RICE / ICE / MoSCoW with strategic alignment
- A board-ready or executive-ready RAG report needs to be produced
- Risk analysis needs EMV, Monte Carlo, or portfolio risk correlation — beyond a basic probability/impact matrix
- Resource capacity planning is needed across multiple concurrent projects
- A quarterly portfolio rebalancing or three-horizons review is being planned
- The user says "our portfolio is misaligned", "executives don't trust the reports", or "we can't tell which projects are actually healthy"

### Core Expertise Areas

**Portfolio Management & Strategic Alignment**
- Multi-project portfolio optimization using advanced prioritization models (WSJF, RICE, ICE, MoSCoW)
- Strategic roadmap development aligned with business objectives and market conditions
- Resource capacity planning and allocation optimization across portfolio
- Portfolio health monitoring with multi-dimensional scoring frameworks

**Quantitative Risk Management**
- Expected Monetary Value (EMV) analysis for financial risk quantification
- Monte Carlo simulation for schedule risk modeling and confidence intervals
- Risk appetite framework implementation with enterprise-level thresholds
- Portfolio risk correlation analysis and diversification strategies

**Executive Communication & Governance**
- Board-ready executive reports with RAG status and strategic recommendations
- Stakeholder alignment through sophisticated RACI matrices and escalation paths
- Financial performance tracking with risk-adjusted ROI and NPV calculations
- Change management strategies for large-scale digital transformations

## Methodology & Frameworks

### Three-Tier Analysis Approach

**Tier 1: Portfolio Health Assessment**
Uses `project_health_dashboard.py` to provide comprehensive multi-dimensional scoring:

```bash
python3 scripts/project_health_dashboard.py assets/sample_project_data.json
```

**Health Dimensions (Weighted Scoring):**
- **Timeline Performance** (25% weight): Schedule adherence, milestone achievement, critical path analysis
- **Budget Management** (25% weight): Spend variance, forecast accuracy, cost efficiency metrics
- **Scope Delivery** (20% weight): Feature completion rates, requirement satisfaction, change control
- **Quality Metrics** (20% weight): Code coverage, defect density, technical debt, security posture
- **Risk Exposure** (10% weight): Risk score, mitigation effectiveness, exposure trends

**RAG Status Calculation:**
- 🟢 Green: Composite score >80, all dimensions >60
- 🟡 Amber: Composite score 60-80, or any dimension 40-60
- 🔴 Red: Composite score <60, or any dimension <40

**Tier 2: Risk Matrix & Mitigation Strategy**
Leverages `risk_matrix_analyzer.py` for quantitative risk assessment:

```bash
python3 scripts/risk_matrix_analyzer.py assets/sample_project_data.json
```

**Risk Quantification Process:**
1. **Probability Assessment** (1-5 scale): Historical data, expert judgment, Monte Carlo inputs
2. **Impact Analysis** (1-5 scale): Financial, schedule, quality, and strategic impact vectors
3. **Category Weighting**: Technical (1.2x), Resource (1.1x), Financial (1.4x), Schedule (1.0x)
4. **EMV Calculation**: Risk Score = (Probability × Impact × Category Weight)

**Risk Response Strategies:**
- **Avoid** (>18 score): Eliminate through scope/approach changes
- **Mitigate** (12-18 score): Reduce probability or impact through active intervention
- **Transfer** (8-12 score): Insurance, contracts, partnerships
- **Accept** (<8 score): Monitor with contingency planning

**Tier 3: Resource Capacity Optimization**
Employs `resource_capacity_planner.py` for portfolio resource analysis:

```bash
python3 scripts/resource_capacity_planner.py assets/sample_project_data.json
```

**Capacity Analysis Framework:**
- **Utilization Optimization**: Target 70-85% for sustainable productivity
- **Skill Matching**: Algorithm-based resource allocation to maximize efficiency
- **Bottleneck Identification**: Critical path resource constraints across portfolio
- **Scenario Planning**: What-if analysis for resource reallocation strategies

### Advanced Prioritization Models

**Weighted Shortest Job First (WSJF) - For Agile Portfolios**
```
WSJF Score = (User Value + Time Criticality + Risk Reduction) ÷ Job Size

Application Context:
- Resource-constrained environments
- Fast-moving competitive landscapes  
- Agile/SAFe methodology adoption
- Clear cost-of-delay quantification available
```

**RICE Framework - For Product Development**
```
RICE Score = (Reach × Impact × Confidence) ÷ Effort

Best for:
- Customer-facing initiatives
- Marketing and growth projects
- When reach metrics are quantifiable
- Data-driven product decisions
```

**ICE Scoring - For Rapid Decision Making**
```  
ICE Score = (Impact + Confidence + Ease) ÷ 3

Optimal when:
- Quick prioritization needed
- Brainstorming and ideation phases
- Limited analysis time available
- Cross-functional team alignment required
```

**Decision Tree for Model Selection:**
Reference: `references/portfolio-prioritization-models.md`

- **Resource Constrained?** → WSJF
- **Customer Impact Focus?** → RICE
- **Need Speed?** → ICE
- **Multiple Stakeholder Groups?** → MoSCoW
- **Complex Trade-offs?** → Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA)

### Risk Management Framework

**Quantitative Risk Analysis Process:**
Reference: `references/risk-management-framework.md`

**Step 1: Risk Identification & Classification**
- Technical risks: Architecture, integration, performance
- Resource risks: Availability, skills, retention
- Schedule risks: Dependencies, critical path, external factors
- Financial risks: Budget overruns, currency, economic factors
- Business risks: Market changes, competitive pressure, strategic shifts

**Step 2: Probability/Impact Assessment**
Uses three-point estimation for Monte Carlo simulation:
```
Expected Value = (Optimistic + 4×Most Likely + Pessimistic) ÷ 6
Standard Deviation = (Pessimistic - Optimistic) ÷ 6
```

**Step 3: Expected Monetary Value (EMV) Calculation**
```
EMV = Σ(Probability × Financial Impact) for all risk scenarios

Risk-Adjusted Budget = Base Budget × (1 + Risk Premium)
Risk Premium = Portfolio Risk Score × Risk Tolerance Factor
```

**Step 4: Portfolio Risk Correlation Analysis**
```
Portfolio Risk = √(Σ Individual Risks² + 2Σ Correlation×Risk1×Risk2)
```

**Risk Appetite Framework:**
- **Conservative**: Risk scores 0-8, 25-30% contingency reserves
- **Moderate**: Risk scores 8-15, 15-20% contingency reserves  
- **Aggressive**: Risk scores 15+, 10-15% contingency reserves

## Stakeholder Mapping & Engagement

### Power/Interest Grid (Mendelow's Matrix)

Uses `stakeholder_mapper.py` to classify stakeholders and generate communication plans:

```bash
python3 scripts/stakeholder_mapper.py stakeholders.json
python3 scripts/stakeholder_mapper.py --demo --format json
```

**Classification Quadrants (threshold at 5/10):**
- **Manage Closely** (High Power, High Interest): Weekly 1:1s, steering committee, proactive escalation
- **Keep Satisfied** (High Power, Low Interest): Monthly executive summary, milestone invites
- **Keep Informed** (Low Power, High Interest): Bi-weekly newsletter, demo invites, dashboards
- **Monitor** (Low Power, Low Interest): Quarterly updates, organizational newsletter

**Blocker Engagement Strategy:**
The tool identifies stakeholders with `attitude: blocker` and generates targeted engagement strategies based on their power level — high-power blockers re