tool-foundation-sprint-founding-hypothesis

What this skill does

<!-- PM-Skills | https://github.com/product-on-purpose/pm-skills | Apache 2.0 -->

# Foundation Sprint Founding Hypothesis

Day 2 end of a Foundation Sprint. The team compresses the full sprint output into a single canonical sentence plus a testable scorecard. This is the artifact the sprint exists to produce; everything before this skill was preparation. Without a ratifiable Founding Hypothesis, the sprint failed.

Family contract: [`docs/reference/skill-families/foundation-sprint-skills-contract.md`](../../docs/reference/skill-families/foundation-sprint-skills-contract.md). This skill is a member of `foundation-sprint-skills`.

## When to Use

- Day 2 end of a Foundation Sprint.
- Magic Lenses is signed; top bet and backup are named.
- The team has 30-45 minutes left in Day 2 and the energy to write the sentence carefully.

## When NOT to Use

- Magic Lenses did not produce a clear top bet. Return to Magic Lenses; the Founding Hypothesis cannot stabilize on an unstable top bet.
- The team wants to "polish the hypothesis later." The hypothesis must be ratified by end of Day 2 or the sprint output is incomplete. Polishing later means re-litigating; that defeats the sprint's purpose.
- The team wants to ratify a vague hypothesis to "ship the sprint." A vague hypothesis is worse than no hypothesis; it gives false confidence and burns trust when validation fails.

## What This Skill Produces

A single bundled artifact with five sections:

1. **Founding Hypothesis statement**: the single canonical sentence (strict template, no paraphrase).
2. **Assumption scorecard**: 5-7 assumptions extracted from the hypothesis, each scored on current confidence and tagged with a best next test (3-10 accepted; recommended range is 5-7).
3. **Why we believe this**: 3-5 bulleted points naming the evidence base.
4. **What could prove us wrong**: 3-5 bulleted points naming the risks. This section is the test of whether the team is in love with the hypothesis or holding it with calibrated confidence.
5. **Recommended next validation step**: Design Sprint, customer research, experiment, landing page test, or other. Names the specific test, owner, and timeline.

See `references/TEMPLATE.md` for the canonical template and `references/EXAMPLE.md` for the Brainshelf example.

## The Canonical Template (Strict)

```text
If we help [target customer] solve [important problem]
with [approach], they will choose it over [competitors or alternatives]
because our solution is [differentiators].
```

This template is strict for v0.1.0 (per ratified spec decision). Paraphrase is not accepted. Variations like "Because we help X with Y..." or compressing two slots into one ("solve [problem] with [approach]") are rejected by the skill. The strictness is intentional: forcing the template forces the team to fill every slot specifically.

The five slots are:

| Slot | Source | Discipline check |
|---|---|---|
| target customer | Basics target customer statement | Must be specific (markers, not segments) |
| important problem | Basics important problem statement | Must be painful enough to drive switching |
| approach | Magic Lenses top bet | Must be the top bet, not a softened version |
| competitors or alternatives | Basics competitor map | Must include "do nothing" if it was named there |
| differentiators | Differentiation chosen two | Must be both differentiators, not just one |

If any slot is vague, the skill rejects the hypothesis and prompts for revision.

## What Makes a Good Founding Hypothesis

| Quality | What it means |
|---|---|
| Specific | Names a real customer and a real problem; not "users" and "frustrations" |
| Comparative | Explains what customers choose today, including doing nothing |
| Differentiated | States why this solution should win, not just that it should |
| Testable | Translates into scorecard questions and experiments |
| Simple | A customer can understand the promise quickly |
| Uncomfortable enough to be useful | If nobody disagrees or feels exposed, the hypothesis may be too vague |

The "uncomfortable" quality is the hardest to enforce: teams unconsciously soften the hypothesis to make it ratifiable. The skill counter-acts by asking, in the discussion phase, "Who in this room would push back on this if they weren't on this team?" Silence is a signal that the hypothesis is too safe.

## Assumption Scorecard

Decompose the hypothesis into 5-7 assumptions (recommended; 3-10 accepted per ratified spec decision). For each:

| Field | What goes here |
|---|---|
| Assumption | One sentence, derived from a specific slot of the hypothesis |
| Why it matters | What would be invalidated if this assumption is wrong |
| Current confidence | High / Medium-high / Medium / Medium-low / Low |
| Best next test | Specific test that would change the confidence level |

The highest-risk assumption (lowest current confidence, highest blast-radius-if-wrong) is the assumption the next validation step (often a Design Sprint) should test first.

## Sequence (45 minutes)

### Step 1: Draft the hypothesis (10-15 min)

The Decider drafts the canonical sentence by filling the 5 slots from prior sprint outputs. The team reviews, identifies vagueness, and revises until each slot is specific. This is the most important 15 minutes of the sprint.

### Step 2: Build the scorecard (15-20 min)

Decompose the hypothesis into 5-7 assumptions. Score each. Identify the highest-risk one.

### Step 3: Why we believe / what could prove us wrong (5-10 min)

Bulleted lists, 3-5 each. The team writes both in parallel; the second list (proof-of-wrong) is the test of whether the team is holding the hypothesis with calibration.

### Step 4: Recommended next test (5 min)

The Decider names the next validation step: Design Sprint, customer research, experiment, etc. The recommended test should attack the highest-risk assumption from the scorecard.

### Step 5: Ratification (1 min)

The Decider signs. The sprint ends.

## Common Pitfalls

- **Vague customer or problem.** "Readers" or "frustrations" are not slots. The skill rejects them.
- **Non-falsifiable hypothesis.** "We will succeed" is not a hypothesis. "If we help X with Y they will choose us" is. The skill enforces the structure.
- **Treating hypothesis as strategy doc.** The hypothesis is a test target, not a strategic plan. The team's strategy decisions live in the Mini Manifesto and decision principles; the hypothesis is what you go test.
- **Skipping the scorecard.** The hypothesis is half the value; the test plan (scorecard + recommended next test) is the other half. Without the scorecard, the hypothesis is wall art.
- **Softening to ratify.** Teams will instinctively soften the hypothesis to make it less controversial. The skill counter-acts with the "would anyone push back" check.
- **Polishing later.** The hypothesis must be ratified by end of Day 2. Polishing later means re-litigating; the sprint discipline collapses.

## Decider Role

The Decider's job during Founding Hypothesis:

1. Draft the canonical sentence (or co-draft with the PM).
2. Lead the revision pass; push back on vague slots.
3. Score scorecard assumptions with the team; supervote when confidence ratings are contested.
4. Name the recommended next validation step explicitly.
5. Ratify the hypothesis by end of Day 2 even if some slot wording is imperfect; further polishing happens by editing the scorecard, not the hypothesis.

## Canonical Sources

- Knapp, J., and Zeratsky, J. *Click*. Founding Hypothesis template and rationale.
- Character Capital. "Foundation Sprint guide." Founding Hypothesis section.
- Knapp, J., and Zeratsky, J. "Introducing the Foundation Sprint." Lenny's Newsletter. Founding Hypothesis structure with worked examples.

## Cross-Skill Usage

Prerequisites: `tool-foundation-sprint-magic-lenses`. The top bet, backup, and decision rationale are the load-bearing inputs.

The skill inherits the Basics bundled artifact (target customer, important problem, compe