world-fates

What this skill does

# World-Fates: The Wheel of Fortune

You manage the long-term destiny of entities in a shared world. Your role is to ensure the wheel of fate turns—that no power is permanent, that consequences accumulate, and that the world feels dynamic across campaigns.

## Core Principle

**Fortune is consequence of choice across time.**

Static worlds feel fake. When the same emperor rules forever, when the same guild controls trade for centuries, when powerful characters never fall—the world loses verisimilitude. The wheel of fate turns. Power attracts challenges. Vulnerabilities compound. Risk exposure accumulates.

This skill tracks fate pressure on entities and generates fate-shift proposals for human approval before applying changes to the world bible.

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## Operational Mode: Hybrid

This skill operates in **hybrid mode**:
1. Scripts calculate fate pressure and generate weighted probability rolls
2. LLM synthesizes proposals based on rolls and entity state
3. Human approves, modifies, or rejects before changes apply to world bible

**The system never "cheats" players out of characters.** Deaths and falls feel like real fate because they emerge from accumulated probability, not arbitrary decisions.

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## The Fate States

### State F1: Stable Ascent
**Symptoms:** Entity is powerful but recently risen; vulnerabilities few; tenure short.
**Fate Pressure:** Low (0.1-0.3)
**Interventions:** Monitor only. Record exposure events.

### State F2: Peak Power
**Symptoms:** Entity at maximum influence; long tenure; few visible weaknesses.
**Fate Pressure:** Moderate (0.3-0.5)
**Key Questions:** What did they sacrifice for power? Who resents them? What do they fear losing?
**Interventions:** Surface hidden vulnerabilities. Introduce rivals.

### State F3: Overextension
**Symptoms:** Power stretched thin; multiple active conflicts; hubris behaviors.
**Fate Pressure:** High (0.5-0.7)
**Key Questions:** Which commitment will break first? Who would benefit from their fall?
**Interventions:** Cascade minor failures. Test alliances. Consider offering fate choices.

### State F4: Precarious Position
**Symptoms:** Multiple vulnerabilities exposed; enemies circling; resources depleted.
**Fate Pressure:** Critical (0.7-0.9)
**Key Questions:** What's the one thread holding them together? What would snap it?
**Interventions:** Fate-offered choices. Major fate-shift proposals. Death probabilities active.

### State F5: Fall in Progress
**Symptoms:** Cascade has begun; entity actively declining.
**Fate Pressure:** Terminal (0.9+)
**Key Questions:** How do they fall? What survives? Who inherits?
**Interventions:** Manage the transition. Redistribute power/wealth. Document the end.

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## The Three-Tier Exit System

Characters leave player control through one of three mechanisms, in order of preference:

### Tier 1: Voluntary NPC Transition (Player Chooses)

Players can retire a character to NPC status at any time.

**When to offer:**
- Player sees fate pressure building
- Player wants to explore a different character
- Character's story feels complete
- Player wants to exit gracefully before fate forces something harsher

**What happens:**
- Player shapes the exit narrative (mentor, rival, background figure)
- Character persists in world, no longer under player control
- No fate roll required
- Character may reappear as NPC in future sessions

**Design principle:** This is always available. Players should never feel trapped.

### Tier 2: Fate-Offered Choice (Fate Proposes, Player Decides)

When fate pressure exceeds 0.6, instead of rolling death immediately, fate presents a dramatic choice.

**Choice structure:**
- **Path A:** NPC-hood/transformation (character survives but leaves player control)
- **Path B:** Face the roll (stays player-controlled, risks death/fall)
- **Path C:** (Optional) Third option with different costs

**Example choices:**
- "The Queen of Shadows offers sanctuary—serve her, lose yourself" (NPC) vs "Refuse and fight" (death roll)
- "Betray your allies to survive" (stay player, reputation destroyed) vs "Stand with them" (death roll)
- "Accept the corruption to gain power" (become antagonist NPC) vs "Resist" (fall roll)

**Why this works:**
- Player has agency within the fate moment
- The choice IS the narrative climax
- Death/fall feels even more earned because they had an off-ramp
- Creates memorable dramatic moments

### Tier 3: Fate-Forced Outcome (Rolled Consequence)

Only triggers when:
- Player refuses the offered choice (Tier 2)
- No choice makes narrative sense in the moment
- Circumstance demands immediate resolution

**What happens:**
- Probability mechanics determine outcome (see formulas below)
- Even here, player can narrate the final moments
- Result applied to world bible after human approval

**Design principle:** Death should never be the first option. The progression is:
1. Pressure builds visibly (player can voluntary exit)
2. Fate offers a dramatic choice (player decides)
3. Only if refused does the die roll happen

---

## The Fate Pressure Formula

Fate pressure determines how likely an entity is to experience a major fate-shift.

```
Fate Pressure = (Power Level × Tenure Modifier × Vulnerability Score / 10)
                ÷ (Protection Factor × max(Fortune Buffer, 0.5))
                + Risk Exposure Accumulation
```

### Power Level (1-10)

How much influence/resources/capability the entity commands.

| Level | Scope | Example |
|-------|-------|---------|
| 1-2 | Local | Village elder, small merchant, local hero |
| 3-4 | Regional | Town mayor, guild master, regional champion |
| 5-6 | National | Noble house, major faction, famous adventurer |
| 7-8 | Civilization | Kingdom ruler, legendary hero, archmage |
| 9-10 | World-shaping | Emperor, demigod, world-threatening power |

### Tenure Modifier

How long they've held power. Longer tenure = more accumulated risk.

| Duration | Modifier | Reasoning |
|----------|----------|-----------|
| < 1 year | 0.5x | Newcomer grace; haven't made enemies yet |
| 1-5 years | 1.0x | Baseline; established but not entrenched |
| 5-20 years | 1.5x | Accumulated grudges, stale alliances |
| 20-50 years | 2.0x | Long rule attracts succession challenges |
| 50+ years | 2.5x | Unnaturally long; something must give |

### Vulnerability Score (0-10)

Sum of exposed weaknesses. Score the vulnerabilities:

| Vulnerability Type | Weight | Example |
|--------------------|--------|---------|
| Known enemy | +1.0 | Rival who wants your position |
| Active conflict | +1.5 | War, feud, ongoing dispute |
| Exploitable flaw | +2.0 | Addiction, temper, pride |
| Critical dependency | +1.0 | Relies on single ally, resource |
| Destroying secret | +3.0 | Hidden truth that would end them |

Cap at 10. More vulnerabilities = higher pressure.

### Protection Factor (1-10)

Shields that reduce fate pressure. Score the protections:

| Protection Type | Weight | Example |
|-----------------|--------|---------|
| Loyal ally | +1.0 | Trusted friend who would die for them |
| Fortified position | +2.0 | Castle, hidden base, defensive advantage |
| Divine/magical protection | +3.0 | God's favor, powerful enchantment |
| Information network | +1.0 | Spies, warning system |
| Popular support | +2.0 | Beloved by the people |

Minimum is 1 (no one has zero protection).

### Fortune Buffer (0-5)

Luck/grace/narrative protection remaining.

- **Starting value:** 3 for most characters, 4-5 for protagonists
- **Decreases:** With narrow escapes, near-death experiences, major setbacks
- **Can be restored:** Through sacrifice, growth, completing positive arcs
- **At 0:** Depleted luck; death becomes possible

Fortune buffer represents "plot armor" but it's a *depletable resource*.

### Risk Exposure Accumulation

Specific dangerous situations add to pressure over time.

| Exposure Type | Increment per Instance |
|---------------|------------------------|
| Active combat | +0.10 |
| Political intrigue | +0.05 |
| Betrayal risk | +0.15