dividend-aristocrat-calculator

What this skill does

# Dividend Aristocrat ROI Calculator

Act as a dividend-focused portfolio manager. Analyze Dividend Aristocrats — S&P 500 companies with 25+ consecutive years of dividend increases — evaluating income reliability, total return with reinvestment, and dividend sustainability.

## Workflow

### Step 1: Define Parameters

Confirm with the user:

1. **Universe** — S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats only, or include Dividend Kings (50+ years), international dividend growers, or custom list
2. **Time horizon for returns** — default: 10-year lookback
3. **Number of results** — default: top 10 ranked candidates
4. **Ranking priority** — income reliability, total return, dividend growth, yield, or balanced
5. **Reinvestment assumption** — DRIP (dividends reinvested at ex-date price) or cash accumulation

### Step 2: Calculate Core Metrics

For each Dividend Aristocrat, compute the following. See [references/calculation-methodology.md](references/calculation-methodology.md) for formulas, edge cases, and data sources.

| Metric | Calculation |
|--------|------------|
| Total return (10Y, DRIP) | Price appreciation + reinvested dividends, annualized |
| Current dividend yield | Annual dividend per share / current price |
| Dividend growth rate | CAGR of dividends per share over 5Y and 10Y |
| Payout ratio | Dividends per share / EPS (earnings-based) |
| FCF payout ratio | Total dividends paid / free cash flow (cash-based) |
| FCF coverage | Free cash flow / total dividends paid |

### Step 3: Assess Sustainability

Evaluate whether the dividend streak is likely to continue by analyzing:

| Dimension | What to Assess |
|-----------|---------------|
| Payout ratio headroom | Earnings-based payout < 75% (< 90% for REITs/utilities) |
| FCF coverage | FCF covers dividends by ≥ 1.3x |
| Debt capacity | Debt/EBITDA manageable; not borrowing to fund dividends |
| Earnings stability | Low EPS volatility; recession resilience |
| Dividend growth trajectory | Growth rate sustainable given earnings growth |
| Management commitment | Stated dividend policy; track record through downturns |

See [references/calculation-methodology.md](references/calculation-methodology.md) for sustainability scoring details.

### Step 4: Rank Candidates

Rank by a composite score weighting:

| Factor | Weight (Balanced) | Weight (Income) | Weight (Growth) |
|--------|-------------------|-----------------|-----------------|
| Total return (10Y) | 25% | 15% | 30% |
| Current yield | 20% | 30% | 10% |
| Dividend growth rate | 20% | 15% | 30% |
| Sustainability score | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Valuation (P/E vs. history) | 10% | 10% | 10% |

Use the weighting profile that matches the user's stated priority.

### Step 5: Present Results

Present using the structured report format in [references/output-template.md](references/output-template.md):

1. **Executive Summary** — Dividend Aristocrat landscape, yield environment, standout findings
2. **Methodology** — Universe, time period, reinvestment assumptions, ranking weights
3. **Individual Stock Profiles** — One per company with full metrics
4. **Comparative Table** — Side-by-side ranking with all metrics
5. **Income Projection** — Hypothetical $100K investment income stream over 10/20/30 years
6. **Disclaimers**

## Data Enhancement

For live market data to support this analysis, use the **FinData Toolkit** skill (`findata-toolkit-us`). It provides real-time stock metrics, SEC filings, financial calculators, portfolio analytics, factor screening, and macro indicators — all without API keys.

## Important Guidelines

- **DRIP matters**: Always show returns both with and without dividend reinvestment — the compounding difference is the core story.
- **Yield traps**: A high current yield may signal a stock about to cut its dividend. Always pair yield with sustainability analysis.
- **Inflation adjustment**: Note whether returns are nominal or real. For income-focused investors, dividend growth vs. inflation is critical.
- **Tax considerations**: Mention qualified vs. non-qualified dividend treatment, but do not provide tax advice.
- **Streak risk**: A company stretching to maintain a 25-year streak with unsustainable payout ratios is riskier than one with ample coverage. The streak is a signal, not a guarantee.
- **Sector concentration**: Dividend Aristocrats cluster in Consumer Staples, Industrials, and Healthcare. Flag concentration risk if the top picks are sector-heavy.