finance-based-pricing-advisor

What this skill does

## Purpose

Evaluate the **financial impact** of pricing changes (price increases, new tiers, add-ons, discounts) using ARPU/ARPA analysis, conversion impact, churn risk, NRR effects, and CAC payback implications. Use this to make data-driven go/no-go decisions on proposed pricing changes with supporting math and risk assessment.

**What this is:** Financial impact evaluation for pricing decisions you're already considering.

**What this is NOT:** Comprehensive pricing strategy design, value-based pricing frameworks, willingness-to-pay research, competitive positioning, psychological pricing, packaging architecture, or monetization model selection. For those topics, see the future `pricing-strategy-suite` skills.

This skill assumes you have a specific pricing change in mind and need to evaluate its financial viability.

## Key Concepts

### The Pricing Impact Framework

A systematic approach to evaluate pricing changes financially:

1. **Revenue Impact** — How does this change ARPU/ARPA?
   - Direct revenue lift from price increase
   - Revenue loss from reduced conversion or increased churn
   - Net revenue impact

2. **Conversion Impact** — How does this affect trial-to-paid or sales conversion?
   - Higher prices may reduce conversion rate
   - Better packaging may improve conversion
   - Test assumptions

3. **Churn Risk** — Will existing customers leave due to price change?
   - Grandfathering strategy (protect existing customers)
   - Churn risk by segment (SMB vs. enterprise)
   - Churn elasticity (how sensitive are customers to price?)

4. **Expansion Impact** — Does this create or block expansion opportunities?
   - New premium tier = upsell path
   - Usage-based pricing = expansion as customers grow
   - Add-ons = cross-sell opportunities

5. **CAC Payback Impact** — Does pricing change affect unit economics?
   - Higher ARPU = faster payback
   - Lower conversion = higher effective CAC
   - Net effect on LTV:CAC ratio

### Pricing Change Types

**Direct monetization changes:**
- Price increase (raise prices for all customers or new customers only)
- New premium tier (create upsell path)
- Paid add-on (monetize previously free feature)
- Usage-based pricing (charge for consumption)

**Discount strategies:**
- Annual prepay discount (improve cash flow)
- Volume discounts (larger deals)
- Promotional pricing (temporary price reduction)

**Packaging changes:**
- Feature bundling (combine features into tiers)
- Unbundling (separate features into add-ons)
- Pricing metric change (seats → usage, or vice versa)

### Anti-Patterns (What This Is NOT)

- **Not value-based pricing:** This evaluates a proposed change, not "what should we charge?"
- **Not WTP research:** This analyzes impact, not "what will customers pay?"
- **Not competitive positioning:** This is financial analysis, not market positioning
- **Not packaging architecture:** This evaluates one change, not redesigning all tiers

### When to Use This Framework

**Use this when:**
- You have a specific pricing change to evaluate (e.g., "Should we raise prices 20%?")
- You need to quantify revenue, churn, and conversion trade-offs
- You're deciding between pricing change options (test A vs. B)
- You need to present pricing change impact to leadership or board

**Don't use this when:**
- You're designing pricing strategy from scratch (use value-based pricing frameworks)
- You haven't validated willingness-to-pay (do customer research first)
- You don't have baseline metrics (ARPU, churn, conversion rates)
- Change is too small to matter (<5% price change, <10% of customers affected)

---

### Facilitation Source of Truth

Use [`workshop-facilitation`](../workshop-facilitation/SKILL.md) as the default interaction protocol for this skill.

It defines:
- session heads-up + entry mode (Guided, Context dump, Best guess)
- one-question turns with plain-language prompts
- progress labels (for example, Context Qx/8 and Scoring Qx/5)
- interruption handling and pause/resume behavior
- numbered recommendations at decision points
- quick-select numbered response options for regular questions (include `Other (specify)` when useful)

This file defines the domain-specific assessment content. If there is a conflict, follow this file's domain logic.

## Application

This interactive skill asks **up to 4 adaptive questions**, offering **3-5 enumerated options** at decision points.

---

### Step 0: Gather Context

**Agent asks:**

"Let's evaluate the financial impact of your pricing change. Please provide:

**Current pricing:**
- Current ARPU or ARPA
- Current pricing tiers (if applicable)
- Current monthly churn rate
- Current trial-to-paid conversion rate (if relevant)

**Proposed pricing change:**
- What change are you considering? (price increase, new tier, add-on, etc.)
- New pricing (if known)
- Affected customer segment (all, new only, specific tier)

**Business context:**
- Total customers (or MRR/ARR)
- CAC (to assess payback impact)
- NRR (to assess expansion context)

You can provide estimates if you don't have exact numbers."

---

### Step 1: Identify Pricing Change Type

**Agent asks:**

"What type of pricing change are you considering?

1. **Price increase** — Raise prices for new customers, existing customers, or both
2. **New premium tier** — Add higher-priced tier with additional features
3. **Paid add-on** — Monetize a new or existing feature separately
4. **Usage-based pricing** — Charge for consumption (seats, API calls, storage, etc.)
5. **Discount strategy** — Annual prepay discount, volume pricing, or promotional pricing
6. **Packaging change** — Rebundle features, change pricing metric, or tier restructure

Choose a number, or describe your specific pricing change."

**Based on selection, agent adapts questions:**

---

#### If Option 1 (Price Increase):

**Agent asks:**

"**Price increase details:**

- Current price: $___
- New price: $___
- Increase: ___%

**Who is affected?**
1. New customers only (grandfather existing)
2. All customers (existing + new)
3. Specific segment (e.g., SMB only, new plan only)

**When would this take effect?**
- Immediately
- Next billing cycle
- Gradual rollout (test first)"

---

#### If Option 2 (New Premium Tier):

**Agent asks:**

"**Premium tier details:**

- Current top tier price: $___
- New premium tier price: $___
- Key features in premium tier: [list]

**Expected adoption:**
- What % of current customers might upgrade? ___%
- What % of new customers might choose premium? ___%

**Cannibalization risk:**
- Will premium tier cannibalize current top tier?"

---

#### If Option 3 (Paid Add-On):

**Agent asks:**

"**Add-on details:**

- Add-on name: ___
- Price: $___ /month or /user
- Currently free or new feature?

**Expected adoption:**
- What % of customers would pay for this? ___%
- Is this feature currently used (if free)?
- Will making it paid hurt retention?"

---

#### If Option 4 (Usage-Based Pricing):

**Agent asks:**

"**Usage pricing details:**

- Usage metric: (seats, API calls, storage, transactions, etc.)
- Pricing: $___ per [unit]
- Free tier or minimum? (e.g., first 1,000 API calls free)

**Expected impact:**
- Average customer usage: ___ units/month
- Expected ARPU change: $current → $new

**Expansion potential:**
- As customers grow usage, will ARPU increase?"

---

#### If Option 5 (Discount Strategy):

**Agent asks:**

"**Discount details:**

- Discount type: (annual prepay, volume, promotional)
- Discount amount: ___% off
- Duration: (ongoing, limited time)

**Trade-off:**
- Lower price vs. improved cash flow (annual prepay)
- Lower price vs. larger deal size (volume)
- Lower price vs. urgency (promotional)"

---

#### If Option 6 (Packaging Change):

**Agent asks:**

"**Packaging change details:**

- What are you changing? (bundling, unbundling, pricing metric)
- Current packaging: [describe]
- New packaging: [describe]

**Expected impact:**
- ARPU change: $current → $new
- Conversion change: ___% → ___%
- Churn risk: (lo