market-sizing

What this skill does

# Market Sizing

You perform autonomous TAM/SAM/SOM market sizing analysis. You research market data yourself — do not ask the user for data they would need to look up. Only ask the user for decisions and confirmations.

## Input handling

Follow shared foundation §7 — interview mode. When input is missing or insufficient, interview to gather at minimum:

| Dimension | Required | Default |
|---|---|---|
| **Product/service/idea** to size | Yes | — |
| **Industry/market** | Yes | — |
| **Geographic scope** | No | Global |
| **Target customer segments** | No | Will be researched |
| **Pricing data** (ASP, ARPU) | No | Will be researched |
| **Time horizon** for projections | No | 5 years |
| **Known competitors** | No | Will be researched |

**Exit interview when**: Product/service and industry are clear enough to research.

## Phase 1 — Setup

### 1. Collect input

Accept one of:
- A product, company, or idea name/description
- A file path to a business case document
- Pasted business case content
- No input or vague input → enter interview mode (§7)

### 2. Detect scope

From the input (or interview results), identify:
- **Subject**: The product, service, or business to size
- **Industry/market**: Sector and market segment
- **Geographic scope**: Region or global (default: global)
- **Customer segments**: Target segments (if provided)
- **Pricing context**: Known pricing or ARPU (if provided)

### 3. Confirm scope

Present detected scope:

```
**Subject**: [name]
**Industry**: [industry/segment]
**Geographic scope**: [scope]
**Target segments**: [listed or "will be researched"]
**Time horizon**: [N years]
**Approach**: Top-down + bottom-up with triangulation
```

Ask the user to confirm or adjust.

Ask diagram render mode and output path per the `diagram-rendering` and `autonomous-research` mixins.

## Phase 2 — Research

Use WebSearch and WebFetch per the `autonomous-research` mixin.

### 2a. Industry data

Research:
- Total industry/market revenue (global, regional)
- Market growth rates (historical CAGR, projected CAGR)
- Industry reports (Gartner, IDC, Statista, IBISWorld, Grand View Research)
- Government statistics (Census, Eurostat, BLS)

### 2b. Customer data

Research:
- Total potential customers (units, companies, users)
- Customer segments and their sizes
- Average selling price (ASP) or average revenue per user (ARPU)
- Purchase frequency and contract values

### 2c. Competitor data

Research:
- Key competitors and their estimated revenues
- Known market shares
- Total competitor revenue sum (for validation)

### 2d. Data freshness check

Flag any data older than 18 months with `[Dated: YYYY]`. Prefer data from the last 18-24 months. State the publication date for every source.

## Phase 3 — TAM Calculation

Calculate TAM using **both** approaches:

### Top-down approach

Start from published industry figures and apply scope filters.

```
TAM (top-down) = Industry revenue from reports
                 × geographic adjustment (if scoped)
```

Document: source report, year, geographic scope, any adjustments made.

### Bottom-up approach

Build from unit economics.

```
TAM (bottom-up) = Total potential customers × Average annual revenue per customer
```

Or equivalently:

```
TAM (bottom-up) = Total units that could use the product × Price per unit × Purchase frequency
```

Document: customer count source, pricing source, calculation steps.

### Triangulation

Compare the two approaches:

| Method | TAM estimate | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Top-down | $[X] | [source] |
| Bottom-up | $[X] | [source] |
| **Divergence** | [X%] | |

- If divergence ≤15%: approaches converge — use the average or the more defensible figure
- If divergence >15%: flag the divergence, interrogate which assumptions cause the gap, present both with analysis of why they differ

## Phase 4 — SAM Calculation

Apply filters to narrow TAM to the serviceable addressable market:

```
SAM = TAM × geographic filter × segment filter × channel filter × product-fit filter
```

Filters to apply:
- **Geography**: Markets you can operationally/legally serve
- **Segments**: Customer types your product actually fits
- **Channels**: Distribution channels available to you
- **Product fit**: Portion of the market your specific offering addresses (not the whole category)

Document each filter with its percentage and rationale.

## Phase 5 — SOM Calculation

Calculate the realistically obtainable market:

```
SOM = SAM × realistic capture rate
```

The capture rate must be grounded in:
- **Competition**: Number and strength of competitors, your differentiation
- **Resources**: Team size, sales capacity, marketing budget
- **Go-to-market**: Channel reach, partnerships, brand recognition
- **Traction**: Current revenue, growth rate, customer acquisition cost

Do NOT use an arbitrary percentage. Alternatively calculate bottom-up:

```
SOM = (Customers acquirable per year × Revenue per customer) × Time horizon
```

## Phase 6 — Growth Projections

Project TAM, SAM, and SOM forward using CAGR:

| Year | TAM | SAM | SOM | CAGR applied |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | $[X] | $[X] | $[X] | — |
| +1 year | $[X] | $[X] | $[X] | [X%] |
| +3 years | $[X] | $[X] | $[X] | [X%] |
| +5 years | $[X] | $[X] | $[X] | [X%] |

Use industry CAGR for TAM. SAM and SOM growth may differ based on expansion plans and competitive dynamics.

## Phase 7 — Segmentation Analysis

Break down the market by key segments:

| Segment | TAM | SAM | SOM | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| [Segment 1] | $[X] | $[X] | $[X] | [key insight] |
| [Segment 2] | $[X] | $[X] | $[X] | [key insight] |

Use the most strategically relevant segmentation (geographic, customer type, use case, price tier — as appropriate for the market).

## Phase 8 — Validation

Cross-check estimates using multiple methods:

### Triangulation
Top-down vs bottom-up convergence (already in Phase 3).

### Competitor reverse-engineering
Sum known competitor revenues. This should approximate or be contained within SAM.

### Analogy comparison
Compare to similar markets in other regions or adjacent categories at similar maturity.

### Sanity checks
- Does SOM imply a plausible market share given competition?
- Does the implied growth rate exceed historical norms?
- Is ASP/ARPU consistent with known pricing?

Present validation results:

| Check | Result | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Top-down/bottom-up convergence | [X%] divergence | Pass / Flag |
| Competitor revenue sum vs SAM | $[X] vs $[X] | Pass / Flag |
| Analog comparison | [comparable market] | Consistent / Divergent |
| SOM market share sanity | [X%] of SAM | Plausible / Aggressive |

## Phase 9 — Diagrams

Generate 6 Mermaid diagrams:

### 1. Concentric circles (TAM > SAM > SOM)

```mermaid
pie title Market Sizing — [Subject]
    "TAM: $[X]B" : [tam_value]
    "SAM: $[X]B" : [sam_value]
    "SOM: $[X]M" : [som_value]
```

### 2. Market sizing funnel

```mermaid
flowchart TB
    TAM["TAM: $[X]B\n[description]"]
    GEO["Geographic filter: [X%]"]
    SEG["Segment filter: [X%]"]
    CHAN["Channel filter: [X%]"]
    SAM["SAM: $[X]B"]
    CAP["Capture rate: [X%]"]
    SOM["SOM: $[X]M"]

    TAM --> GEO --> SEG --> CHAN --> SAM --> CAP --> SOM
```

### 3. Growth projection chart

```mermaid
xychart-beta
    title "Market Growth Projection"
    x-axis ["Current", "+1Y", "+3Y", "+5Y"]
    y-axis "Revenue ($B)" 0 --> [max]
    bar [tam_current, tam_1y, tam_3y, tam_5y]
    bar [sam_current, sam_1y, sam_3y, sam_5y]
    bar [som_current, som_1y, som_3y, som_5y]
```

### 4. Segmentation breakdown

```mermaid
pie title Market Segmentation — TAM
    "[Segment 1]" : [value]
    "[Segment 2]" : [value]
    "[Segment 3]" : [value]
```

### 5. Top-down vs bottom-up comparison

```mermaid
flowchart LR
    subgraph TopDown["Top-Down"]
        TD1["Industry report: $[X]B"] --> TD2["Geographic adj: ×[X]"] --> TD3["TAM: $[X]B"]
    end
    subgraph BottomUp["Bottom-Up"]
        BU1["[X]M customers"] --> BU2["× $[X] ARPU"] --> BU3["